Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Sport Recife vs Cuiaba

Prediction Audit: Sport Recife vs Cuiaba Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sport Recife Sport Recife
Jul 27, 2026 - 22:30
1 2.07
1 0.97
xG Accuracy: 74%
Cuiaba Cuiaba

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sport Recife at 61.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sport Recife Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Sport Recife considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Sport Recife +15.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sport Recife 61.5% 45.8% +15.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 22.9% 31.7% -8.7 pp Market Higher
Cuiaba 15.6% 22.5% -6.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Sport Recife's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 45.8%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Sport Recife.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sport Recife; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sport Recife by 15.7 percentage points (45.9% vs model 61.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 27, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sport Recife 61.4% · Draw 23.0% · Cuiaba 15.6%
    • xG · Sport Recife 2.07 — Cuiaba 0.97
  2. Jul 27, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sport Recife 2.10 · Draw 3.04 · Cuiaba 4.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Sport Recife 45.8% · Draw 31.7% · Cuiaba 22.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 27, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sport Recife 2.10 · Draw 3.04 · Cuiaba 4.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Sport Recife 45.8% · Draw 31.7% · Cuiaba 22.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 27, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Betting Confidence 39/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1458865

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sport Recife 1–1 Cuiaba
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Sport Recife vs Cuiaba
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 61.4% · Draw 23.0% · Away 15.6%
  • xG (showing): Sport Recife 2.07 — Cuiaba 0.97 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Sport Recife
  • Model: 61.4% · Implied: 45.8% · Probability edge: +15.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.5% · No 44.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
3 Fortaleza EC 29 14 9 6 51
4 Juventude 29 14 8 7 50
5 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
6 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
7 Criciuma 29 13 8 8 47
8 CRB 29 13 6 10 45
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
14 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 29 4 5 20 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
3 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
4 CRB 29 42 41 +1 45
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 29 34 31 +3 41
11 Fortaleza EC 29 33 24 +9 51
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
14 Juventude 29 31 19 +12 50
15 Cuiaba 29 30 22 +8 43
16 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
17 Avai 29 30 38 -8 30
18 Criciuma 29 28 27 +1 47
19 America Mineiro 29 21 49 -28 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 29 16.8 10.1 +6.7 51
3 Cuiaba 29 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 29 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 29 18.6 15.8 +2.8 45
8 Juventude 29 10.2 8.0 +2.2 50
9 Criciuma 29 10.0 8.1 +1.9 47
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 29 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 29 11.9 19.2 -7.3 41
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions