Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Londrina vs Novorizontino

Prediction Audit: Londrina vs Novorizontino Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Londrina Londrina
Jul 26, 2026 - 21:30
1 2.04
4 1.09
xG Accuracy: 34%
Novorizontino Novorizontino

The model missed the final outcome (Novorizontino win 1–4).

The model had projected Londrina at 58.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Londrina Novorizontino ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Londrina considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Londrina +33.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Londrina 58.0% 24.9% +33.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 23.6% 29.7% -6.1 pp Market Higher
Novorizontino 18.4% 45.4% -27.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Londrina's win probability at 58.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.9%, a difference of 33.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Novorizontino win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.13) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Londrina; match finished Novorizontino
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Londrina by 33.1 percentage points (24.9% vs model 58.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Londrina 58.1% · Draw 23.6% · Novorizontino 18.4%
    • xG · Londrina 2.04 — Novorizontino 1.09
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Londrina 3.86 · Draw 3.24 · Novorizontino 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Londrina 24.9% · Draw 29.7% · Novorizontino 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Londrina 3.86 · Draw 3.24 · Novorizontino 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Londrina 24.9% · Draw 29.7% · Novorizontino 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Novorizontino win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 26/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (33 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454822

Closing Odds 3.86
AI Fair Odds 1.51
CLV Pending
Final Result Novorizontino win · Londrina 1–4 Novorizontino
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 66.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Londrina; market prices Novorizontino instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Londrina 2.04 xG vs Novorizontino 1.09 → Londrina 58.0%
  • Market: Novorizontino ~24.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.5% · Over 2.5 60.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Juventude 30 15 8 7 53
3 Fortaleza EC 30 14 10 6 52
4 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
5 Criciuma 30 14 8 8 50
6 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
7 CRB 30 14 6 10 48
8 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 30 10 13 7 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Athletic Club 30 10 12 8 42
14 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 30 8 6 16 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 30 4 5 21 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 CRB 30 45 41 +4 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 30 36 33 +3 42
11 Fortaleza EC 30 35 26 +9 52
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Juventude 30 32 19 +13 53
14 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
15 Criciuma 30 31 27 +4 50
16 Cuiaba 30 30 25 +5 43
17 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
18 Avai 30 30 41 -11 30
19 America Mineiro 30 21 50 -29 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 30 16.8 10.1 +6.7 52
3 Cuiaba 30 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 30 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 30 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 30 10.2 8.0 +2.2 53
9 Criciuma 30 10.0 8.1 +1.9 50
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 30 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 30 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions