Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC

Prediction Audit: Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vila Nova Vila Nova
Jul 22, 2026 - 00:35
2 2.30
1 1.12
xG Accuracy: 89%
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC

AI correctly predicted the Vila Nova win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vila Nova Vila Nova ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Vila Nova considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Vila Nova +25.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vila Nova 62.7% 36.8% +25.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 21.1% 33.0% -11.8 pp Market Higher
Fortaleza EC 16.1% 30.2% -14.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Vila Nova's win probability at 62.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.8%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vila Nova win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.42) — 3 goals materialised
  • Vila Nova attacking xG significantly stronger (2.30 vs 1.12)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vila Nova more conservatively (36.8% vs model 62.7%, 25.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vila Nova win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 22, 2026 · 00:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vila Nova 62.8% · Draw 21.1% · Fortaleza EC 16.1%
    • xG · Vila Nova 2.30 — Fortaleza EC 1.12
  2. Jul 22, 2026 · 00:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vila Nova 2.55 · Draw 2.96 · Fortaleza EC 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Vila Nova 37.8% · Draw 32.5% · Fortaleza EC 29.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 22, 2026 · 00:34 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vila Nova 2.62 · Draw 2.92 · Fortaleza EC 3.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Vila Nova 36.8% · Draw 33.0% · Fortaleza EC 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 22, 2026 · 00:35 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vila Nova win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 44/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 28/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1822667

Closing Odds 2.62
AI Fair Odds 1.59
CLV Pending
Final Result Vila Nova win · Vila Nova 2–1 Fortaleza EC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 62.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Campeonato Brasileiro Série B
  • Fixture: Vila Nova vs Fortaleza
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-22 00:35:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 62.8% · Draw 21.1% · Away 16.1%
  • xG (showing): Vila Nova 2.3 — Fortaleza 1.12 (total xG ≈ 3.42)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Vila Nova
  • Model: 62.8% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +26.0 pts · Est. EV: +15.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.7% · No 38.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Juventude 30 15 8 7 53
3 Fortaleza EC 30 14 10 6 52
4 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
5 Criciuma 30 14 8 8 50
6 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
7 CRB 30 14 6 10 48
8 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 30 10 13 7 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Athletic Club 30 10 12 8 42
14 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 30 8 6 16 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 30 4 5 21 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 CRB 30 45 41 +4 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 30 36 33 +3 42
11 Fortaleza EC 30 35 26 +9 52
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Juventude 30 32 19 +13 53
14 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
15 Criciuma 30 31 27 +4 50
16 Cuiaba 30 30 25 +5 43
17 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
18 Avai 30 30 41 -11 30
19 America Mineiro 30 21 50 -29 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 30 16.8 10.1 +6.7 52
3 Cuiaba 30 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 30 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 30 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 30 10.2 8.0 +2.2 53
9 Criciuma 30 10.0 8.1 +1.9 50
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 30 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 30 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions