Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Ceara vs CRB

Prediction Audit: Ceara vs CRB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ceara Ceara
Jul 22, 2026 - 22:30
0 2.47
1 0.98
xG Accuracy: 50%
CRB CRB

The model missed the final outcome (CRB win 0–1).

The model had projected Ceara at 69.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ceará CRB ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Ceara considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Ceara +26.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ceara 69.0% 42.4% +26.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 19.0% 30.1% -11.1 pp Market Higher
CRB 12.1% 27.6% -15.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Ceara's win probability at 69.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 42.4%, a difference of 26.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CRB win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ceara by 26.6 percentage points (42.4% vs model 69.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 22, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ceara 69.0% · Draw 19.0% · CRB 12.1%
    • xG · Ceara 2.47 — CRB 0.98
  2. Jul 22, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ceara 2.27 · Draw 3.20 · CRB 3.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Ceara 42.4% · Draw 30.1% · CRB 27.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 22, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ceara 2.27 · Draw 3.20 · CRB 3.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Ceara 42.4% · Draw 30.1% · CRB 27.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 22, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CRB win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 38/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (83%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 24/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454566

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds 1.45
CLV Pending
Final Result CRB win · Ceara 0–1 CRB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 69.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Campeonato Brasileiro Série B
  • Fixture: Ceará vs CRB
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-22 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 69.0% · Draw 19.0% · Away 12.1%
  • xG (showing): Ceará 2.47 — CRB 0.98 (total xG ≈ 3.45)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Ceará
  • Model: 69.0% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +26.6 pts · Est. EV: +12.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.2% · No 41.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (9.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Juventude 30 15 8 7 53
3 Fortaleza EC 30 14 10 6 52
4 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
5 Criciuma 30 14 8 8 50
6 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
7 CRB 30 14 6 10 48
8 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 30 10 13 7 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Athletic Club 30 10 12 8 42
14 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 30 8 6 16 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 30 4 5 21 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 CRB 30 45 41 +4 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 30 36 33 +3 42
11 Fortaleza EC 30 35 26 +9 52
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Juventude 30 32 19 +13 53
14 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
15 Criciuma 30 31 27 +4 50
16 Cuiaba 30 30 25 +5 43
17 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
18 Avai 30 30 41 -11 30
19 America Mineiro 30 21 50 -29 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 30 16.8 10.1 +6.7 52
3 Cuiaba 30 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 30 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 30 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 30 10.2 8.0 +2.2 53
9 Criciuma 30 10.0 8.1 +1.9 50
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 30 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 30 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions