Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Sport Recife vs Operario-PR

Prediction Audit: Sport Recife vs Operario-PR Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sport Recife Sport Recife
Jul 18, 2026 - 19:00
2 2.92
2 0.92
xG Accuracy: 58%
Operario-PR Operario-PR

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Sport Recife at 72.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sport Recife Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Sport Recife considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Sport Recife +24.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sport Recife 72.5% 48.5% +24.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 17.3% 29.1% -11.8 pp Market Higher
Operario-PR 10.2% 22.4% -12.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Sport Recife's win probability at 72.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 48.5%, a difference of 24.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.84) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sport Recife; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sport Recife by 24.0 percentage points (48.5% vs model 72.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 21:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sport Recife 72.5% · Draw 17.3% · Operario-PR 10.2%
    • xG · Sport Recife 2.92 — Operario-PR 0.92
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sport Recife 1.98 · Draw 3.30 · Operario-PR 4.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Sport Recife 48.5% · Draw 29.1% · Operario-PR 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sport Recife 1.98 · Draw 3.30 · Operario-PR 4.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Sport Recife 48.5% · Draw 29.1% · Operario-PR 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 39/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (116%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 25/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1547562

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds 1.38
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sport Recife 2–2 Operario-PR
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 72.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 70–75% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campeonato Brasileiro Série B
  • Fixture: Sport Recife vs Operário-PR
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Sport Recife 2.92 — Operário-PR 0.92 (total xG ≈ 3.84)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Juventude 30 15 8 7 53
3 Fortaleza EC 30 14 10 6 52
4 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
5 Criciuma 30 14 8 8 50
6 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
7 CRB 30 14 6 10 48
8 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 30 10 13 7 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Athletic Club 30 10 12 8 42
14 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 30 8 6 16 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 30 4 5 21 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 CRB 30 45 41 +4 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 30 36 33 +3 42
11 Fortaleza EC 30 35 26 +9 52
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Juventude 30 32 19 +13 53
14 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
15 Criciuma 30 31 27 +4 50
16 Cuiaba 30 30 25 +5 43
17 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
18 Avai 30 30 41 -11 30
19 America Mineiro 30 21 50 -29 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 30 16.8 10.1 +6.7 52
3 Cuiaba 30 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 30 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 30 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 30 10.2 8.0 +2.2 53
9 Criciuma 30 10.0 8.1 +1.9 50
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 30 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 30 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions