Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Sölvesborg vs Räppe

Prediction Audit: Sölvesborg vs Räppe Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sölvesborg Sölvesborg
Jun 18, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 85%
Räppe Räppe

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sölvesborg at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sölvesborg Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sölvesborg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sölvesborg -9.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sölvesborg 40.4% 49.9% -9.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.9% +4.6 pp Aligned
Räppe 30.1% 25.2% +4.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sölvesborg's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sölvesborg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Sölvesborg; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sölvesborg by 9.5 percentage points (49.9% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 18, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sölvesborg 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Räppe 30.1%
    • xG · Sölvesborg 1.41 — Räppe 1.19
  2. Jun 18, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 1.78 · Draw 3.57 · Räppe 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 49.9% · Draw 24.9% · Räppe 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 18, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 1.78 · Draw 3.57 · Räppe 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 49.9% · Draw 24.9% · Räppe 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 52/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3439619

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sölvesborg 1–1 Räppe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Sölvesborg vs Räppe
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-18 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Sölvesborg 1.41 — Räppe 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.9% · Probability edge: +12.9 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 22 17 3 2 54
2 IFK Trelleborg 22 13 5 4 44
3 Oskarshamns AIK 22 13 3 6 42
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
6 Växjö Norra 23 9 8 6 35
7 Nosaby 22 9 6 7 33
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 22 8 1 13 25
11 Staffanstorp United 22 5 8 9 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 22 3 2 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 22 57 19 +38 54
2 Oskarshamns AIK 22 55 26 +29 42
3 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
4 IFK Trelleborg 22 45 20 +25 44
5 Nosaby 22 39 37 +2 33
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 22 33 38 -5 23
9 Sölvesborg 22 32 40 -8 25
10 Växjö Norra 23 31 31 0 35
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
14 Karlshamn 22 23 56 -33 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions