Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Karlshamn vs Karlskrona

Prediction Audit: Karlshamn vs Karlskrona Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Karlshamn Karlshamn
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.19
4 1.41
xG Accuracy: 47%
Karlskrona Karlskrona

AI correctly predicted the Karlskrona win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Karlskrona Karlskrona ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Karlskrona higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Karlskrona -27.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Karlshamn 30.1% 13.2% +16.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 18.8% +10.7 pp Model Edge
Karlskrona 40.4% 68.0% -27.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Karlskrona's win probability at 68.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 27.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Karlskrona win 1–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Karlskrona higher (68.0% vs model 40.4%, 27.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Karlskrona win 1–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Karlshamn 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Karlskrona 40.5%
    • xG · Karlshamn 1.19 — Karlskrona 1.41
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Karlshamn 6.75 · Draw 4.75 · Karlskrona 1.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlshamn 13.2% · Draw 18.8% · Karlskrona 68.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Karlshamn 6.75 · Draw 4.75 · Karlskrona 1.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlshamn 13.2% · Draw 18.8% · Karlskrona 68.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Karlskrona win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10082431

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Karlskrona win · Karlshamn 1–4 Karlskrona
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Karlshamn vs Karlskrona
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Karlshamn 1.19 — Karlskrona 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 18 3 2 57
2 IFK Trelleborg 23 14 5 4 47
3 Oskarshamns AIK 23 13 3 7 42
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Nosaby 23 10 6 7 36
6 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
7 Växjö Norra 23 9 8 6 35
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 22 8 1 13 25
11 Staffanstorp United 23 5 8 10 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 23 3 2 18 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 61 20 +41 57
2 Oskarshamns AIK 23 58 30 +28 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 23 49 23 +26 47
4 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
5 Nosaby 23 42 37 +5 36
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 23 33 41 -8 23
9 Sölvesborg 22 32 40 -8 25
10 Växjö Norra 23 31 31 0 35
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
14 Karlshamn 23 24 60 -36 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions