Stenhousemuir vs Falkirk Sharp money alert: Stenhousemuir ↓ -17.9% market move detected

Stenhousemuir

Feb 08, 2026 - 19:30 2H

43% 25% 31%

Falkirk

Forecast Assessment

Model breakdown risk

Favourite: Stenhousemuir Balanced match
Model probability: 43.2%
Market probability: 14.0%
Market agreement: Very weak
Validation: Fail

Summary:

Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Stenhousemuir ↓ -17.9% 7.0 → 5.75
Move type: 🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score: 88A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth: 10/12
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Stenhousemuir

🐢 Slow drift over 167h 29m

Open 8.50

Low / High 5.70

Current 5.75

Market Narrative

10/12 books synchronized on Stenhousemuir (17.9% steam, score 88) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Very weak
Validation: Fail
Largest gap: Falkirk -32.9 pp
Breadth: 10/12
Current market activity: Stenhousemuir odds shortened ↓ -17.9%.

The model and market differ by 32.9 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup — validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Stenhousemuir	43.23%	14.01%	+29.2 pp
Draw	25.46%	21.76%	+3.7 pp
Falkirk	31.32%	64.23%	-32.9 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Model Breakdown Risk

The model and market differ by 32.9 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup — validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.

Extreme model-market divergence detected.

1X2 ✔ Stenhousemuir (Value)

Match: 43.2% Stenhousemuir; Market consensus (3-way) 14.0%; Consensus-line EV +14.1%

Primary: Stenhousemuir — Value · EV +14.1% · Model 43.2%

Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).

⭐ 1X2 Best value (+EV)

Stenhousemuir · Model probability 43.2%

Market consensus (3-way) 14.0%

Consensus-line EV: +14.1%

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Over / Under 2.5 Pass

Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 12.1%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Decision strength: 6.0 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Stenhousemuir market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on Stenhousemuir

Odds move: 7.00 → 5.75 (↓ -17.9%)
Market breadth: 10/12
Steam score: 88 (A+)
Current status: Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation failed

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 1.44
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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