Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / EIF vs JäPS

Prediction Audit: EIF vs JäPS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

EIF EIF
Jul 18, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
JäPS JäPS

The model missed the final outcome (JäPS win 0–1).

The model had projected EIF at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 EIF JäPS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices EIF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: EIF -7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
EIF 39.9% 47.7% -7.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.3% 24.2% +4.0 pp Aligned
JäPS 31.8% 28.0% +3.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates EIF's win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was JäPS win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on EIF. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned EIF; match finished JäPS

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on EIF by 7.8 percentage points (47.7% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · EIF 39.9% · Draw 28.3% · JäPS 31.9%
    • xG · EIF 1.34 — JäPS 1.26
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · EIF 1.99 · Draw 3.92 · JäPS 3.39
    • Implied 1X2 · EIF 47.7% · Draw 24.2% · JäPS 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · EIF 1.99 · Draw 3.92 · JäPS 3.39
    • Implied 1X2 · EIF 47.7% · Draw 24.2% · JäPS 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result JäPS win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 16:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2524612

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result JäPS win · EIF 0–1 JäPS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: EIF vs JäPS
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): EIF 1.34 — JäPS 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 23 17 3 3 54
2 PK-35 23 14 6 3 48
3 Haka 24 13 5 6 44
4 JIPPO 23 11 7 5 40
5 JäPS 24 11 2 11 35
6 EIF 24 8 4 12 28
7 MP 23 7 4 12 25
8 Klubi-04 24 4 8 12 20
9 KäPa 23 4 6 13 18
10 SJK Akatemia 23 2 7 14 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 24 45 26 +19 44
2 PK-35 23 41 15 +26 48
3 Kooteepee 23 41 21 +20 54
4 JIPPO 23 32 20 +12 40
5 EIF 24 28 36 -8 28
6 Klubi-04 24 28 36 -8 20
7 MP 23 25 34 -9 25
8 KäPa 23 24 41 -17 18
9 JäPS 24 22 34 -12 35
10 SJK Akatemia 23 14 37 -23 13
Ykkösliiga Finland. Ykkösliiga Predictions