Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / EIF vs SJK Akatemia

Prediction Audit: EIF vs SJK Akatemia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

EIF EIF
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 85%
SJK Akatemia SJK Akatemia

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected EIF at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 EIF Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices EIF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: EIF -21.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
EIF 37.1% 58.5% -21.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.0% +9.7 pp Model Higher
SJK Akatemia 33.3% 21.5% +11.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates EIF's win probability at 58.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned EIF; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on EIF by 21.5 percentage points (58.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · EIF 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · SJK Akatemia 33.4%
    • xG · EIF 1.34 — SJK Akatemia 1.26
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · EIF 1.62 · Draw 4.75 · SJK Akatemia 4.41
    • Implied 1X2 · EIF 58.5% · Draw 20.0% · SJK Akatemia 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · EIF 1.62 · Draw 4.75 · SJK Akatemia 4.41
    • Implied 1X2 · EIF 58.5% · Draw 20.0% · SJK Akatemia 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10082253

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · EIF 1–1 SJK Akatemia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: EIF vs SJK Akatemia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): EIF 1.34 — SJK Akatemia 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 25 18 4 3 58
2 PK-35 24 14 6 4 48
3 Haka 25 13 5 7 44
4 JIPPO 24 11 7 6 40
5 JäPS 24 11 2 11 35
6 MP 25 8 5 12 29
7 EIF 24 8 4 12 28
8 KäPa 25 6 6 13 24
9 Klubi-04 24 4 8 12 20
10 SJK Akatemia 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 25 47 29 +18 44
2 Kooteepee 25 45 22 +23 58
3 PK-35 24 41 18 +23 48
4 JIPPO 24 32 21 +11 40
5 KäPa 25 30 45 -15 24
6 EIF 24 28 36 -8 28
7 Klubi-04 24 28 36 -8 20
8 MP 25 27 35 -8 29
9 JäPS 24 22 34 -12 35
10 SJK Akatemia 24 16 40 -24 13