Forecast Assessment
Use caution
- Favourite
- JIPPO Balanced match
- Model probability
- 39.9%
- Market probability
- 61.6%
- Market agreement
- Weak
- Validation
- Warning
Summary:
Both lean JIPPO, but the market prices them higher (61.6% vs model 39.9%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.
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Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Weak
- Validation
- Warning
- Largest gap
- JIPPO -21.6 pp
- Breadth
- 12/12
- Current market activity
- No meaningful directional movement yet.
The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| JIPPO | 39.94% | 61.59% | -21.6 pp |
| Draw | 29.48% | 22.77% | +6.7 pp |
| KäPa | 30.58% | 15.64% | +14.9 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Model Validation Required
The model and market differ materially (21.6 percentage points). Additional validation is recommended before interpreting this comparison.
- Extreme model-market divergence detected.
- Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
- Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
BTTS: EV Yes +3.2% · EV No -13.6%
JIPPO market context before kickoff
⚠️ Volatile market on JIPPO
- Odds move
- 1.50 → 1.50 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 12/12
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Model validation warning
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Validation Passed
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 1.46
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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