Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Brumunddal vs Lyn II

Prediction Audit: Brumunddal vs Lyn II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Brumunddal Brumunddal
Aug 03, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
9 1.28
xG Accuracy: 11%
Lyn II Lyn II

The model missed the final outcome (Lyn II win 1–9).

The model had projected Brumunddal at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Brumunddal Lyn II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-9 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Lyn II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Lyn II -25.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Brumunddal 36.1% 20.2% +15.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 20.2% +9.5 pp Model Higher
Lyn II 34.2% 59.6% -25.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Lyn II's win probability at 59.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 25.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Lyn II win 1–9.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 10 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (10 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Brumunddal; match finished Lyn II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Brumunddal by 25.4 percentage points (61.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Brumunddal 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Lyn II 34.2%
    • xG · Brumunddal 1.32 — Lyn II 1.28
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Brumunddal 4.40 · Draw 4.40 · Lyn II 1.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Brumunddal 20.2% · Draw 20.2% · Lyn II 59.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Brumunddal 4.40 · Draw 4.40 · Lyn II 1.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Brumunddal 20.2% · Draw 20.2% · Lyn II 59.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lyn II win · 1–9
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2131998

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lyn II win · Brumunddal 1–9 Lyn II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Brumunddal vs Lyn II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Brumunddal 1.32 — Lyn II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 19 14 2 3 44
2 Råde 19 12 2 5 38
3 Elverum 19 12 2 5 38
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 19 11 2 6 35
5 Ørn Horten 19 8 5 6 29
6 Lyn II 19 9 2 8 29
7 Raelingen 19 8 4 7 28
8 Oppsal 19 8 3 8 27
9 Drøbak / Frogn 19 7 5 7 26
10 Sandefjord II 19 8 2 9 26
11 Sarpsborg 08 II 19 7 3 9 24
12 Fram 19 6 3 10 21
13 Brumunddal 19 3 3 13 12
14 Bjørkelangen 19 1 0 18 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Råde 19 68 34 +34 38
2 Lillehammer 19 67 28 +39 44
3 Elverum 19 49 31 +18 38
4 Sandefjord II 19 47 41 +6 26
5 Lyn II 19 45 44 +1 29
6 Sarpsborg 08 II 19 44 45 -1 24
7 Drøbak / Frogn 19 37 28 +9 26
8 Raelingen 19 37 45 -8 28
9 Ørn Horten 19 36 31 +5 29
10 Fram 19 35 43 -8 21
11 Oppsal 19 33 30 +3 27
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 19 27 14 +13 35
13 Brumunddal 19 23 80 -57 12
14 Bjørkelangen 19 15 69 -54 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions