Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 / Raelingen vs Lyn II

Prediction Audit: Raelingen vs Lyn II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Raelingen
Sep 28, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Lyn II Lyn II

AI correctly predicted the Raelingen win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Raelingen Raelingen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Raelingen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Raelingen -22.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Raelingen 36.1% 58.6% -22.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.9% +9.8 pp Model Higher
Lyn II 34.2% 21.5% +12.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Raelingen's win probability at 58.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 22.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Raelingen win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Raelingen higher (58.6% vs model 36.1%, 22.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Raelingen win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 28, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Raelingen 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Lyn II 34.2%
    • xG · Raelingen 1.32 — Lyn II 1.28
  2. Sep 28, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Raelingen 1.48 · Draw 4.36 · Lyn II 4.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Raelingen 58.6% · Draw 19.9% · Lyn II 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 28, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Raelingen 1.48 · Draw 4.36 · Lyn II 4.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Raelingen 58.6% · Draw 19.9% · Lyn II 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Raelingen win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10250528

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Raelingen win · Raelingen 1–0 Lyn II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 6
  • Fixture: Raelingen vs Lyn II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Raelingen 1.32 — Lyn II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 6 3. Division - Girone 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 16 2 3 50
2 Elverum 21 13 2 6 41
3 Råde 21 12 3 6 39
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 11 2 8 35
5 Oppsal 21 10 3 8 33
6 Drøbak / Frogn 21 9 5 7 32
7 Sandefjord II 21 10 2 9 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 9 5 7 32
9 Lyn II 20 9 3 8 30
10 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 8 4 9 28
11 Raelingen 20 8 4 8 28
12 Fram 21 6 4 11 22
13 Brumunddal 21 3 3 15 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 1 0 20 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lillehammer 21 79 30 +49 50
2 Råde 21 70 40 +30 39
3 Elverum 21 56 36 +20 41
4 Sandefjord II 21 53 45 +8 32
5 Sarpsborg 08 II 21 49 49 0 28
6 Lyn II 20 47 46 +1 30
7 Drøbak / Frogn 21 46 30 +16 32
8 Ørn Horten 21 40 35 +5 32
9 Fram 21 38 48 -10 22
10 Raelingen 20 38 49 -11 28
11 Oppsal 21 37 31 +6 33
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 21 31 20 +11 35
13 Brumunddal 21 25 84 -59 12
14 Bjørkelangen 21 16 82 -66 3
3. Division - Girone 6 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions