Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Kongsvinger II vs Strømsgodset II

Prediction Audit: Kongsvinger II vs Strømsgodset II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kongsvinger II Kongsvinger II
Aug 10, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II

The model missed the final outcome (Strømsgodset II win 2–3).

The model had projected Kongsvinger II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kongsvinger II Strømsgodset II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kongsvinger II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kongsvinger II -15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kongsvinger II 36.1% 51.5% -15.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.6% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Strømsgodset II 34.2% 26.9% +7.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Kongsvinger II's win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Strømsgodset II win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kongsvinger II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Kongsvinger II; match finished Strømsgodset II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kongsvinger II by 15.4 percentage points (51.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kongsvinger II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Strømsgodset II 34.2%
    • xG · Kongsvinger II 1.32 — Strømsgodset II 1.28
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kongsvinger II 1.72 · Draw 4.11 · Strømsgodset II 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Kongsvinger II 51.5% · Draw 21.6% · Strømsgodset II 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kongsvinger II 1.72 · Draw 4.11 · Strømsgodset II 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Kongsvinger II 51.5% · Draw 21.6% · Strømsgodset II 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Strømsgodset II win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2972500

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Strømsgodset II win · Kongsvinger II 2–3 Strømsgodset II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Kongsvinger II vs Strømsgodset II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Kongsvinger II 1.32 — Strømsgodset II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 20 15 1 4 46
2 Harstad 20 12 3 5 39
3 Fløya 19 10 3 6 33
4 Alta 19 9 6 4 33
5 Finnsnes 19 10 2 7 32
6 Fauske Sprint 19 8 4 7 28
7 Lillestrøm II 19 9 0 10 27
8 Skjetten 19 8 3 8 27
9 Skjervøy 19 7 3 9 24
10 Strømsgodset II 19 7 2 10 23
11 Kongsvinger II 19 7 2 10 23
12 Bossekop 20 5 4 11 19
13 Tromsø II 19 4 5 10 17
14 Ulfstind 20 4 2 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Harstad 20 66 31 +35 39
2 Lillestrøm II 19 63 41 +22 27
3 Fauske Sprint 19 54 63 -9 28
4 Fløya 19 49 30 +19 33
5 Alta 19 44 28 +16 33
6 Skedsmo 20 43 25 +18 46
7 Skjetten 19 43 41 +2 27
8 Strømsgodset II 19 39 42 -3 23
9 Finnsnes 19 36 31 +5 32
10 Kongsvinger II 19 36 51 -15 23
11 Ulfstind 20 36 70 -34 14
12 Bossekop 20 34 67 -33 19
13 Skjervøy 19 32 48 -16 24
14 Tromsø II 19 31 38 -7 17
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions