Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Uruguay vs Spain

Uruguay vs Spain

Group H
Uruguay Uruguay
Jun 27, 2026 - 00:00
0 0.91
1 1.79
Spain Spain

Betting Signal

Model says
Spain 56.9%
Status
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans Spain (56.9%).

The model leans Spain, with modest separation from other outcomes. Monitor market movement before kickoff.

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AI Forecast
Uruguay 17.3%
Draw 25.8%
Spain 56.9%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
51.1%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
48.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 51.1% · No 48.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
1-1 12.3%
0-2 10.8%
0-1 10.6%
1-2 9.8%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.3% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Match Phase: Finished

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Closing unavailable

  1. Prediction Generated
  2. Market Compared
    Entry Pending
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
    Closing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
  5. CLV Evaluated
    CLV Pending Requires closing line after full time
Back to today's predictions
Group H fixtures