Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Haiti vs Scotland

Haiti vs Scotland

Group C
Haiti Haiti
Jun 14, 2026 - 01:00
0 2.16
1 0.54
Scotland Scotland

Betting Signal

Model says
Haiti 74.0%
Market says
Scotland 16.3%
Difference
57.7 pp
Status
Market disagrees with model

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Scotland (16.3%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Haiti, Market → Scotland, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Model vs Market Comparison

Haiti
74.0% vs 16.3%
+57.7 pp
Draw
19.1% vs 21.03%
-1.9 pp
Scotland
6.8% vs 62.68%
-55.9 pp

Largest Gap

Haiti +57.7 pp

The model is substantially more bullish on Haiti than the market.

The model and market differ by more than 57.7 percentage points. This often indicates rating-source issues, team mapping errors, missing strength inputs, or invalid assumptions. Review underlying data before interpreting the comparison.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Data Integrity Review Required

Extreme model-market divergence detected. The model and market differ by 57.7 percentage points. Review underlying rating inputs and team mapping before interpreting this comparison.

AI Forecast
Haiti 74.0%
Draw 19.1%
Scotland 6.8%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 92.3% 7.7%
1.5 76.1% 23.9%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
37.8%
Likely
Clean sheet likely
62.2%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS No 62.2% — at least one zero-scoreline cell carries 62.2% of joint mass.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
2-0 15.7%
1-0 13.5%
3-0 11.3%
1-1 8.8%
2-1 8.4%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 15.7% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Match Phase: Finished

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prediction Generated
  2. Market Compared
    Entry Pending
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
    Closing 6.0
  5. CLV Evaluated
    CLV Pending Awaiting CLV calculation
Back to today's predictions
Group C fixtures