Predictions / Football / World. CAF Confederation Cup / Olympique Safi vs San-Pédro

Olympique Safi vs San-Pédro Sharp money alert: San-Pédro ↓ -16.7% market move detected

Olympique Safi Olympique Safi
Feb 01, 2026 - 19:00 1H
1
0
43% 25% 31%
San-Pédro San-Pédro

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Olympique Safi Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
62.1%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Both lean Olympique Safi, but the market prices them higher (62.1% vs model 43.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
San-Pédro ↓ -16.7% 7.5 → 6.25
Move type
🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score
84A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth
7/9
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — San-Pédro

🐢 Slow drift over 23h 38m

Open 9.25
Low / High 6.00
Current 6.25

Market Narrative

7/9 books synchronized on San-Pédro (16.7% steam, score 84) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Olympique Safi -18.9 pp
Breadth
7/9
Current market activity
San-Pédro odds shortened ↓ -16.7%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Olympique Safi than the current fair estimate.

However, recent buying interest has been on San-Pédro, with odds shortening by 16.7%.

Buying interest on San-Pédro — odds shortened by 16.7%.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Olympique Safi 43.23% 62.11% -18.9 pp
Draw 25.46% 23.92% +1.5 pp
San-Pédro 31.32% 13.96% +17.4 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Olympique Safi vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 43.2% Olympique Safi; Market consensus (3-way) 62.1%; Consensus-line EV -21.7%
No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
⭐ 1X2 Lean
Olympique Safi · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 62.1%
Consensus-line EV: -21.7%
Best available bookmaker line: +6.6% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (4.0/10) — size down.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

San-Pédro market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on San-Pédro

Odds move
7.50 → 6.25 (↓ -16.7%)
Market breadth
7/9
Steam score
84 (A+)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.45
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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CAF Confederation Cup CAF Confederation Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 USM Alger 6 4 2 0 14
2 Olympique Safi 6 4 1 1 13
3 Djoliba 6 1 1 4 4
4 San-Pédro 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 USM Alger 6 9 4 +5 14
2 San-Pédro 6 8 14 -6 3
3 Olympique Safi 6 7 4 +3 13
4 Djoliba 6 5 7 -2 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 USM Alger 6 0.8 0.4 +0.4 14
2 Olympique Safi 6 0.4 0.8 -0.4 13
3 Djoliba 6 — — — 4
4 San-Pédro 6 — — — 3
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