Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie B / Sampdoria vs Spezia

Sampdoria vs Spezia Strong steam move across 13/13 sportsbooks on Draw

Sampdoria Sampdoria
Jan 31, 2026 - 18:30
1.92
1.16
54% 25% 21%
Spezia Spezia

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Sampdoria Slight favourite
Model probability
53.8%
Market probability
42.1%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Sampdoria, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Draw ↓ -6.3% 3.2 → 3.0
Move type
⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score
55B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
13/13
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Draw

🐢 Slow drift over 135h 22m

Open 3.35
Low / High 2.80
Current 3.00

Market Narrative

Betfair led repricing on Draw (6.3%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Sampdoria +11.7 pp
Breadth
13/13
Current market activity
Draw odds shortened ↓ -6.3%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Sampdoria.

However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 6.3%.

Buying interest on Draw — odds shortened by 6.3%.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Sampdoria 53.75% 42.08% +11.7 pp
Draw 24.82% 32.5% -7.7 pp
Spezia 21.43% 25.42% -4.0 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • Possible value on 1X2: Sampdoria (+3.0% EV at best odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
Premium betting site 1xbet: New users can use the promo code 1x_3342271 to receive $100 cash.
1X2 ✔ Sampdoria (Value)
Match: 53.8% Sampdoria; Market consensus (3-way) 42.1%; Consensus-line EV +3.0%
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
⭐ 1X2 Model edge (+EV)
Sampdoria · Model probability 53.8%
Market consensus (3-way) 42.1%
Consensus-line EV: +3.0%
Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 59.5% · Under 2.5 40.6%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 59.9% · No 40.1%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 10.2%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Execution: No Primary / sized alternative at standard thresholds — other markets may still show +EV in the cards below.
Market insight: A small model–price gap may exist on marginal or high-variance legs — not a default bankroll bet; size down if you experiment. (Technical: at least one tracked line clears the +EV gate at ≥2.0% on best available odds — this does not imply a default bet.)
Decision strength: 5.0 / 10
  • At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? Discretionary read only: +EV may appear on thin or longshot legs; compare with your limits.

Draw market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Draw

Odds move
3.20 → 3.00 (↓ -6.3%)
Market breadth
13/13
Steam score
55 (B)
Current status
Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.22
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 44
14 Virtus Entella 38 10 12 16 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venezia 38 77 31 +46 82
2 Frosinone 38 76 34 +42 81
3 Catanzaro 38 62 51 +11 59
4 Monza 38 61 32 +29 76
5 Palermo 38 61 33 +28 72
6 Pescara 38 51 66 -15 35
7 Modena 38 49 36 +13 55
8 Carrarese 38 47 52 -5 44
9 Empoli 38 47 54 -7 41
10 Cesena 38 45 56 -11 46
11 Mantova 38 45 57 -12 46
12 Juve Stabia 38 44 45 -1 51
13 Avellino 38 43 55 -12 49
14 Spezia 38 43 59 -16 35
15 Padova 38 39 49 -10 46
16 Sudtirol 38 38 48 -10 41
17 Bari 38 38 60 -22 40
18 Virtus Entella 38 36 51 -15 42
19 Reggiana 38 36 56 -20 37
20 Sampdoria 38 35 48 -13 44
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Venezia 38 73.9 33.1 +40.8 82
2 Monza 38 56.5 34.9 +21.6 76
3 Palermo 38 57.5 43.0 +14.5 72
4 Frosinone 38 62.1 49.0 +13.1 81
5 Modena 38 49.2 38.5 +10.7 55
6 Cesena 38 51.7 46.5 +5.2 46
7 Sampdoria 38 38.6 35.7 +2.9 44
8 Empoli 38 46.3 44.1 +2.2 41
9 Juve Stabia 38 41.7 39.6 +2.1 51
10 Catanzaro 38 50.2 49.0 +1.2 59
11 Mantova 38 49.0 50.6 -1.6 46
12 Sudtirol 38 41.8 44.9 -3.1 41
13 Virtus Entella 38 45.0 48.5 -3.5 42
14 Spezia 38 46.9 50.5 -3.6 35
15 Carrarese 38 45.1 55.0 -9.9 44
16 Pescara 38 46.4 58.1 -11.7 35
17 Reggiana 38 33.8 48.8 -15.0 37
18 Avellino 38 33.6 51.9 -18.3 49
19 Padova 38 33.3 52.3 -19.0 46
20 Bari 38 33.3 61.8 -28.5 40
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