Alfreton Town vs Buxton Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alfreton Town

Feb 07, 2026 - 15:00

1.49

1.23

43% 25% 31%

Buxton

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Alfreton Town Balanced match
Model probability: 43.2%
Market probability: 31.2%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Alfreton Town, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Buxton remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Alfreton Town ↑ +2.9% 2.8 → 2.88
Move type: ⚠️ Volatile market
Steam Score: 25C
Limited conviction
Market breadth: 5/12
Phase: Volatile
Ref book: Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Highest consensus move

Odds path — Alfreton Town

🐢 Slow drift over 59h 55m

Open 3.21

Low / High 2.75

Current 2.88

Market Narrative

Volatile two-way pricing on Alfreton Town (swing 3.21 → 2.75 → 2.88) — net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.

Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Alfreton Town +12.0 pp
Breadth: 5/12
Current market activity: Alfreton Town odds lengthened ↑ +2.9%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Alfreton Town.

Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Alfreton Town	43.23%	31.22%	+12.0 pp
Draw	25.46%	27.44%	-2.0 pp
Buxton	31.32%	41.34%	-10.0 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

Possible value on 1X2: Alfreton Town (+3.4% EV at best odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

1X2 ✔ Alfreton Town (Value)

Match: 43.2% Alfreton Town; Market consensus (3-way) 31.2%; Consensus-line EV +3.4%

No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.

⭐ 1X2 Model edge (+EV)

Alfreton Town · Model probability 43.2%

Market consensus (3-way) 31.2%

Consensus-line EV: +3.4%

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Over / Under 2.5 Pass

Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 12.1%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Execution: No Primary / sized alternative at standard thresholds — other markets may still show +EV in the cards below.

Market insight: A small model–price gap may exist on marginal or high-variance legs — not a default bankroll bet; size down if you experiment. (Technical: at least one tracked line clears the +EV gate at ≥2.0% on best available odds — this does not imply a default bet.)

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? Discretionary read only: +EV may appear on thin or longshot legs; compare with your limits.

Alfreton Town market context before kickoff

⚠️ Volatile market on Alfreton Town

Odds move: 2.80 → 2.88 (↑ +2.9%)
Market breadth: 5/12
Steam score: 25 (C)
Current status: Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 2.9
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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National League - North — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	AFC Fylde	46	32	4	10	100
2	South Shields	46	28	11	7	95
3	Kidderminster Harriers	46	25	12	9	87
4	Macclesfield	46	24	7	15	79
5	Buxton	46	22	7	17	73
6	Scarborough Athletic	46	19	16	11	73
7	Chester	46	20	13	13	73
8	Merthyr Town	46	22	4	20	70
9	Darlington 1883	46	20	9	17	69
10	Spennymoor Town	46	19	11	16	68
11	AFC Telford United	46	17	14	15	65
12	Marine	46	18	8	20	62
13	Radcliffe	46	18	6	22	60
14	Southport	46	16	12	18	60
15	Chorley	46	15	12	19	57
16	Worksop Town	46	16	9	21	57
17	Oxford City	46	15	11	20	56
18	Bedford Town	46	13	14	19	53
19	King's Lynn Town	46	12	16	18	52
20	Hereford	46	14	10	22	52
21	Curzon Ashton	46	13	13	20	52
22	Alfreton Town	46	12	14	20	50
23	Peterborough Sports	46	10	9	27	39
24	Leamington	46	7	8	31	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	AFC Fylde	46	112	51	+61	100
2	South Shields	46	99	43	+56	95
3	Merthyr Town	46	95	86	+9	70
4	AFC Telford United	46	85	65	+20	65
5	Buxton	46	83	61	+22	73
6	Macclesfield	46	81	68	+13	79
7	Darlington 1883	46	78	68	+10	69
8	Radcliffe	46	76	83	-7	60
9	Kidderminster Harriers	46	74	51	+23	87
10	Curzon Ashton	46	67	88	-21	52
11	Chester	46	66	64	+2	73
12	Chorley	46	66	65	+1	57
13	Worksop Town	46	66	74	-8	57
14	Bedford Town	46	66	77	-11	53
15	Southport	46	64	71	-7	60
16	Hereford	46	64	79	-15	52
17	Oxford City	46	62	67	-5	56
18	Spennymoor Town	46	62	69	-7	68
19	Marine	46	62	72	-10	62
20	Scarborough Athletic	46	61	52	+9	73
21	King's Lynn Town	46	56	64	-8	52
22	Peterborough Sports	46	51	96	-45	39
23	Alfreton Town	46	49	82	-33	50
24	Leamington	46	41	90	-49	29