União de Leiria vs Pacos Ferreira Strong steam move across 9/13 sportsbooks on Pacos Ferreira

União de Leiria

Feb 01, 2026 - 11:00

2.01

1.05

58% 24% 18%

Pacos Ferreira

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite: União de Leiria Slight favourite
Model probability: 58.3%
Market probability: 54.1%
Market agreement: Strong
Validation: Pass

Summary:

The model and market both identify União de Leiria as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Pacos Ferreira ↑ +5.6% 4.5 → 4.75
Move type: ⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score: 44B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth: 9/13
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Pacos Ferreira

🐢 Slow drift over 103h 50m

Open 5.05

Low / High 3.90

Current 4.75

Market Narrative

Betfair led repricing on Pacos Ferreira (5.6%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Strong
Validation: Pass
Largest gap: União de Leiria +4.2 pp
Breadth: 9/13
Current market activity: Pacos Ferreira odds lengthened ↑ +5.6%.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

However, Pacos Ferreira has seen drift — odds lengthened by 5.6%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Pacos Ferreira — odds lengthened by 5.6% (weakening support).

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
União de Leiria	58.31%	54.11%	+4.2 pp
Draw	23.78%	26.28%	-2.5 pp
Pacos Ferreira	17.91%	19.61%	-1.7 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (União de Leiria vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.

1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market

Match: 58.4% União de Leiria; Market consensus (3-way) 54.1%; Consensus-line EV -3.9%

No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.

⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 59.0% · Under 2.5 41.0%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

1X2 Poor value

União de Leiria · Model probability 58.4%

Market consensus (3-way) 54.1%

Consensus-line EV: -3.9%

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

2-1

Probability 9.9%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.

Decision strength: 5.0 / 10

No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)
No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Pacos Ferreira market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Pacos Ferreira

Odds move: 4.50 → 4.75 (↑ +5.6%)
Market breadth: 9/13
Steam score: 44 (B)
Current status: Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 1.7
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Segunda Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maritimo	34	20	6	8	66
2	Academico Viseu	34	17	8	9	59
3	Torreense	34	18	5	11	59
4	Vizela	34	14	9	11	51
5	FC Porto B	34	15	6	13	51
6	União de Leiria	34	13	11	10	50
7	Leixoes	34	15	5	14	50
8	Feirense	34	12	10	12	46
9	Chaves	34	13	6	15	45
10	Benfica B	34	11	11	12	44
11	Felgueiras 1932	34	11	11	12	44
12	Lusitânia Lourosa	34	11	10	13	43
13	Sporting CP B	34	13	3	18	42
14	Penafiel	34	11	8	15	41
15	Portimonense	34	11	7	16	40
16	Farense	34	10	10	14	40
17	Pacos Ferreira	34	9	12	13	39
18	Oliveirense	34	8	10	16	34

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Academico Viseu	34	58	33	+25	59
2	União de Leiria	34	52	46	+6	50
3	Maritimo	34	50	29	+21	66
4	Torreense	34	46	33	+13	59
5	Leixoes	34	46	55	-9	50
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	34	44	52	-8	43
7	Benfica B	34	43	44	-1	44
8	Chaves	34	42	40	+2	45
9	Sporting CP B	34	41	34	+7	42
10	FC Porto B	34	41	42	-1	51
11	Vizela	34	39	40	-1	51
12	Portimonense	34	39	49	-10	40
13	Penafiel	34	37	39	-2	41
14	Feirense	34	37	40	-3	46
15	Felgueiras 1932	34	34	38	-4	44
16	Pacos Ferreira	34	34	48	-14	39
17	Oliveirense	34	34	49	-15	34
18	Farense	34	31	37	-6	40

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Maritimo	34	9.6	5.5	+4.1	66
2	Chaves	34	7.5	4.3	+3.2	45
3	Academico Viseu	34	8.5	6.2	+2.3	59
4	Feirense	34	2.9	1.1	+1.8	46
5	Leixoes	34	7.9	7.1	+0.8	50
6	Portimonense	34	6.2	5.4	+0.8	40
7	Benfica B	34	4.1	3.5	+0.6	44
8	Felgueiras 1932	34	7.2	6.7	+0.5	44
9	União de Leiria	34	8.6	8.2	+0.4	50
10	Sporting CP B	34	3.6	3.2	+0.4	42
11	Farense	34	3.8	4.2	-0.4	40
12	Lusitânia Lourosa	34	7.6	8.5	-0.9	43
13	Vizela	34	3.1	4.4	-1.3	51
14	Oliveirense	34	6.8	8.7	-1.9	34
15	Torreense	34	3.1	5.0	-1.9	59
16	Penafiel	34	4.7	7.3	-2.6	41
17	FC Porto B	34	4.0	6.7	-2.7	51
18	Pacos Ferreira	34	4.0	7.3	-3.3	39