1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Sporting CP
- Model probability
- 75.1%
- Market probability
- 84.1%
- Difference
- -8.9 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -11.4%
No Value Edge
Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
Selective Lean - No Primary Bet
6.2/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Calibration Risk
Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.
Other factors
- Edge Below Threshold
Consensus EV
+3.9%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
8.9 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
57/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 75.1% |
| Market (no-vig) | 84.1% |
| Difference | +8.9 pp |
Market aligns with model lean
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Positive consensus EV (below Primary gate)+3.9% · need ≥ +5.0%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Sporting CP
Risk factors
- ✗Extreme xG calibration failedHome 2.52 · Away 0.74 · Peak +87%
- ✗Market moved against Draw7.0 → 8.0 · ↑ +14.3%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Draw · ↑ +14.3%
Breadth
12/13
Books moving same direction
SBO Sharp
↑ +32.2%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +30.7%
1xBet
↑ +29.5%
Dafabet
↑ +23.7%
Marathonbet
↑ +22.8%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +18.8%
William Hill
↑ +18.8%
Betano
↑ +14.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +14.3%
Unibet
↑ +13.3%
10Bet
↑ +12.7%
188Bet
↑ +12.2%
Move Score
47 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseMarket drift
StatusDrift
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 63.2%
- Market probability (Over)
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (No)
- Lean
- No
- Model probability
- 51.0%
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 49.0%
BTTS No 51.0%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 2-0
- Model probability (2-0)
- 12.2%
- Market probability (2-0)
- —
- Difference
- —
- EV @ Market Odds
- —
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 2-0 12.2%
- 3-0 10.2%
- 1-0 9.7%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 3-1 7.6%
Match Phase: Live · 2H
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Closing unavailable
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 8.0
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending Requires closing line after full time
Final Verdict
Selective Lean - No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP at 75.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 84.1%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Sporting CP as the value side (75.1%)
- Market broadly agrees with the direction
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- Edge does not clear Primary threshold
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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