Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Strong steam move across 10/12 sportsbooks on Kasımpaşa

Kasımpaşa

Jan 30, 2026 - 17:00

1.02

0.87

36% 35% 28%

Samsunspor

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Kasımpaşa Balanced match
Model probability: 36.4%
Market probability: 30.6%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Kasımpaşa, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Kasımpaşa ↑ +7.6% 2.88 → 3.1
Move type: ⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score: 53B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth: 10/12
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Kasımpaşa

🐢 Slow drift over 107h 30m

Open 3.20

Low / High 2.70

Current 3.10

Market Narrative

Pinnacle led repricing on Kasımpaşa (7.6%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Samsunspor -10.0 pp
Breadth: 10/12
Current market activity: Kasımpaşa odds lengthened ↑ +7.6%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Samsunspor than the current fair estimate.

However, Kasımpaşa has seen drift — odds lengthened by 7.6%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Kasımpaşa — odds lengthened by 7.6% (weakening support).

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Kasımpaşa	36.37%	30.56%	+5.8 pp
Draw	35.28%	31.07%	+4.2 pp
Samsunspor	28.34%	38.36%	-10.0 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (Kasımpaşa vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Under 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
Significant line move — see market context below.

Low conviction (3.5/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market

Match: 36.4% Kasımpaşa; Market consensus (3-way) 30.6%; Consensus-line EV -1.9%

No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.

⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 29.4% · Under 2.5 70.6%

Value lean: Under 2.5

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 38.9% · No 61.1%

Value lean: BTTS No

1X2 Poor value

Kasımpaşa · Model probability 36.4%

Market consensus (3-way) 30.6%

Consensus-line EV: -1.9%

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-0

Probability 15.4%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.

Decision strength: 3.5 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
Draw probability above 30% (−0.5)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Kasımpaşa market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Kasımpaşa

Odds move: 2.88 → 3.10 (↑ +7.6%)
Market breadth: 10/12
Steam score: 53 (B)
Current status: Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 2.43
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Kasımpaşa & Samsunspor!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Süper Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Galatasaray	34	24	5	5	77
2	Fenerbahçe	34	21	11	2	74
3	Trabzonspor	34	20	9	5	69
4	Beşiktaş	34	17	9	8	60
5	Başakşehir	34	16	9	9	57
6	Göztepe	34	14	13	7	55
7	Samsunspor	34	13	12	9	51
8	Rizespor	34	10	11	13	41
9	Konyaspor	34	10	10	14	40
10	Kocaelispor	34	9	10	15	37
11	Alanyaspor	34	7	16	11	37
12	Gaziantep FK	34	9	10	15	37
13	Kasımpaşa	34	8	11	15	35
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	34	9	7	18	34
15	Eyüpspor	34	8	9	17	33
16	Antalyaspor	34	8	8	18	32
17	Kayserispor	34	6	12	16	30
18	Fatih Karagümrük	34	8	6	20	30

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Galatasaray	34	77	30	+47	77
2	Fenerbahçe	34	77	37	+40	74
3	Trabzonspor	34	61	39	+22	69
4	Beşiktaş	34	59	40	+19	60
5	Başakşehir	34	58	35	+23	57
6	Samsunspor	34	46	45	+1	51
7	Rizespor	34	46	52	-6	41
8	Konyaspor	34	43	50	-7	40
9	Gaziantep FK	34	43	58	-15	37
10	Göztepe	34	42	32	+10	55
11	Alanyaspor	34	41	41	0	37
12	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	34	36	47	-11	34
13	Eyüpspor	34	33	48	-15	33
14	Kasımpaşa	34	33	49	-16	35
15	Antalyaspor	34	33	55	-22	32
16	Fatih Karagümrük	34	31	54	-23	30
17	Kayserispor	34	27	62	-35	30
18	Kocaelispor	34	26	38	-12	37

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Galatasaray	34	68.5	32.7	+35.8	77
2	Fenerbahçe	34	65.0	30.1	+34.9	74
3	Beşiktaş	34	62.6	36.8	+25.8	60
4	Başakşehir	34	53.5	42.7	+10.8	57
5	Göztepe	34	46.6	35.8	+10.8	55
6	Trabzonspor	34	50.4	43.9	+6.5	69
7	Samsunspor	34	43.1	38.9	+4.2	51
8	Rizespor	34	45.3	45.5	-0.2	41
9	Kocaelispor	34	30.1	33.2	-3.1	37
10	Konyaspor	34	44.0	47.4	-3.4	40
11	Gaziantep FK	34	44.4	50.8	-6.4	37
12	Alanyaspor	34	34.6	44.1	-9.5	37
13	Kayserispor	34	37.9	51.7	-13.8	30
14	Kasımpaşa	34	29.2	43.8	-14.6	35
15	Fatih Karagümrük	34	33.2	48.0	-14.8	30
16	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	34	34.9	51.4	-16.5	34
17	Eyüpspor	34	34.4	53.3	-18.9	33
18	Antalyaspor	34	27.8	55.2	-27.4	32