Predictions / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük

Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük Strong steam move across 10/13 sportsbooks on Fatih Karagümrük

Göztepe Göztepe
Jan 31, 2026 - 17:00 2H
2
1
47% 31% 22%
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Göztepe Slight favourite
Model probability
47.4%
Market probability
62.1%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Göztepe, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Fatih Karagümrük ↑ +7.7% 6.5 → 7.0
Move type
⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score
51B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
10/13
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Fatih Karagümrük

🐢 Slow drift over 135h 22m

Open 7.17
Low / High 5.51
Current 7.00

Market Narrative

Pinnacle led repricing on Fatih Karagümrük (7.7%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Göztepe -14.7 pp
Breadth
10/13
Current market activity
Fatih Karagümrük odds lengthened ↑ +7.7%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Göztepe than the current fair estimate.

However, Fatih Karagümrük has seen drift — odds lengthened by 7.7%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Fatih Karagümrük — odds lengthened by 7.7% (weakening support).

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Göztepe 47.4% 62.1% -14.7 pp
Draw 30.85% 23.84% +7.0 pp
Fatih Karagümrük 21.75% 14.05% +7.7 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Göztepe vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Under 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (3.5/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 47.4% Göztepe; Market consensus (3-way) 62.1%; Consensus-line EV -16.9%
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
Longshot — High risk value — Fatih Karagümrük (EV +2.5%) ; Model 21.7%
High variance — not for standard staking plan sizing.
⭐ 1X2 Lean
Göztepe · Model probability 47.4%
Market consensus (3-way) 62.1%
Consensus-line EV: -16.9%
Best available bookmaker line: +2.5% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 38.8% · Under 2.5 61.2%
Value lean: Under 2.5
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 44.8% · No 55.2%
Value lean: BTTS No
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-0
Probability 14.7%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Execution: No Primary / sized alternative at standard thresholds — other markets may still show +EV in the cards below.
Market insight: A small model–price gap may exist on marginal or high-variance legs — not a default bankroll bet; size down if you experiment. (Technical: at least one tracked line clears the +EV gate at ≥2.0% on best available odds — this does not imply a default bet.)
Decision strength: 3.5 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Draw probability above 30% (−0.5)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? Discretionary read only: +EV may appear on thin or longshot legs; compare with your limits.

Fatih Karagümrük market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Fatih Karagümrük

Odds move
6.50 → 7.00 (↑ +7.7%)
Market breadth
10/13
Steam score
51 (B)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.5
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 24 5 5 77
2 Fenerbahçe 34 21 11 2 74
3 Trabzonspor 34 20 9 5 69
4 Beşiktaş 34 17 9 8 60
5 Başakşehir 34 16 9 9 57
6 Göztepe 34 14 13 7 55
7 Samsunspor 34 13 12 9 51
8 Rizespor 34 10 11 13 41
9 Konyaspor 34 10 10 14 40
10 Kocaelispor 34 9 10 15 37
11 Alanyaspor 34 7 16 11 37
12 Gaziantep FK 34 9 10 15 37
13 Kasımpaşa 34 8 11 15 35
14 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34 9 7 18 34
15 Eyüpspor 34 8 9 17 33
16 Antalyaspor 34 8 8 18 32
17 Kayserispor 34 6 12 16 30
18 Fatih Karagümrük 34 8 6 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 77 30 +47 77
2 Fenerbahçe 34 77 37 +40 74
3 Trabzonspor 34 61 39 +22 69
4 Beşiktaş 34 59 40 +19 60
5 Başakşehir 34 58 35 +23 57
6 Samsunspor 34 46 45 +1 51
7 Rizespor 34 46 52 -6 41
8 Konyaspor 34 43 50 -7 40
9 Gaziantep FK 34 43 58 -15 37
10 Göztepe 34 42 32 +10 55
11 Alanyaspor 34 41 41 0 37
12 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34 36 47 -11 34
13 Eyüpspor 34 33 48 -15 33
14 Kasımpaşa 34 33 49 -16 35
15 Antalyaspor 34 33 55 -22 32
16 Fatih Karagümrük 34 31 54 -23 30
17 Kayserispor 34 27 62 -35 30
18 Kocaelispor 34 26 38 -12 37
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 68.5 32.7 +35.8 77
2 Fenerbahçe 34 65.0 30.1 +34.9 74
3 Beşiktaş 34 62.6 36.8 +25.8 60
4 Başakşehir 34 53.5 42.7 +10.8 57
5 Göztepe 34 46.6 35.8 +10.8 55
6 Trabzonspor 34 50.4 43.9 +6.5 69
7 Samsunspor 34 43.1 38.9 +4.2 51
8 Rizespor 34 45.3 45.5 -0.2 41
9 Kocaelispor 34 30.1 33.2 -3.1 37
10 Konyaspor 34 44.0 47.4 -3.4 40
11 Gaziantep FK 34 44.4 50.8 -6.4 37
12 Alanyaspor 34 34.6 44.1 -9.5 37
13 Kayserispor 34 37.9 51.7 -13.8 30
14 Kasımpaşa 34 29.2 43.8 -14.6 35
15 Fatih Karagümrük 34 33.2 48.0 -14.8 30
16 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34 34.9 51.4 -16.5 34
17 Eyüpspor 34 34.4 53.3 -18.9 33
18 Antalyaspor 34 27.8 55.2 -27.4 32
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