Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Leganes vs Racing Santander

Prediction Audit: Leganes vs Racing Santander Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leganes Leganes
May 10, 2026 - 14:15
1 1.72
2 1.69
xG Accuracy: 75%
Racing Santander Racing Santander

The model missed the final outcome (Racing Santander win 1–2).

The model had projected Leganes at 38.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Leganes Racing Santander ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Leganes considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Leganes +5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leganes 38.1% 32.2% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.1% 25.7% -0.6 pp Aligned
Racing Santander 36.8% 42.0% -5.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Leganes's win probability at 38.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.2%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Racing Santander win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Leganes.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.41) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Leganes; match finished Racing Santander

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Leganes by 5.8 percentage points (32.3% vs model 38.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leganes 38.1% · Draw 25.1% · Racing Santander 36.8%
    • xG · Leganes 1.72 — Racing Santander 1.69
  2. May 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leganes 3.00 · Draw 3.76 · Racing Santander 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Leganes 32.2% · Draw 25.7% · Racing Santander 42.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leganes 3.00 · Draw 3.76 · Racing Santander 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Leganes 32.2% · Draw 25.7% · Racing Santander 42.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Racing Santander win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3063680

Closing Odds 3.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Racing Santander win · Leganes 1–2 Racing Santander
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Leganes vs Racing Santander
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.1% · Draw 25.1% · Away 36.8%
  • xG (showing): Leganes 1.72 — Racing Santander 1.69 (total xG ≈ 3.41)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.2% · Implied: 59.8% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.2% · No 31.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Racing Santander 42 25 7 10 82
2 Deportivo La Coruna 42 22 11 9 77
3 Almeria 42 22 8 12 74
4 Malaga 42 21 10 11 73
5 Las Palmas 42 20 13 9 73
6 Castellón 42 20 12 10 72
7 Burgos 42 20 12 10 72
8 Eibar 42 19 10 13 67
9 Sporting Gijon 42 18 7 17 61
10 Cordoba 42 17 10 15 61
11 AD Ceuta FC 42 17 10 15 61
12 Albacete 42 16 11 15 59
13 FC Andorra 42 16 10 16 58
14 Granada CF 42 12 12 18 48
15 Real Sociedad II 42 12 11 19 47
16 Leganes 42 11 13 18 46
17 Valladolid 42 12 10 20 46
18 Cadiz 42 11 10 21 43
19 Mirandes 42 10 10 22 40
20 Huesca 42 9 11 22 38
21 Cultural Leonesa 42 9 10 23 37
22 Zaragoza 42 8 12 22 36
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing Santander 42 90 61 +29 82
2 Almeria 42 81 63 +18 74
3 Malaga 42 75 52 +23 73
4 Castellón 42 70 51 +19 72
5 Deportivo La Coruna 42 65 44 +21 77
6 FC Andorra 42 62 54 +8 58
7 Sporting Gijon 42 60 54 +6 61
8 Las Palmas 42 57 40 +17 73
9 Cordoba 42 57 61 -4 61
10 Albacete 42 56 55 +1 59
11 Eibar 42 52 40 +12 67
12 Real Sociedad II 42 52 61 -9 47
13 AD Ceuta FC 42 51 63 -12 61
14 Granada CF 42 50 56 -6 48
15 Burgos 42 48 33 +15 72
16 Mirandes 42 47 69 -22 40
17 Valladolid 42 44 57 -13 46
18 Leganes 42 43 51 -8 46
19 Cadiz 42 41 61 -20 43
20 Huesca 42 41 63 -22 38
21 Cultural Leonesa 42 39 68 -29 37
22 Zaragoza 42 35 59 -24 36
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Castellón 42 41.1 29.0 +12.1 72
2 Valladolid 42 34.2 23.6 +10.6 46
3 Cordoba 42 39.1 32.6 +6.5 61
4 Eibar 42 38.5 32.4 +6.1 67
5 Racing Santander 42 36.6 32.0 +4.6 82
6 Burgos 42 32.1 27.9 +4.2 72
7 Malaga 42 36.9 33.4 +3.5 73
8 Granada CF 42 32.0 29.2 +2.8 48
9 Las Palmas 42 22.9 20.6 +2.3 73
10 Deportivo La Coruna 42 30.2 28.3 +1.9 77
11 Albacete 42 35.2 33.7 +1.5 59
12 Sporting Gijon 42 30.8 29.4 +1.4 61
13 Almeria 42 32.7 31.4 +1.3 74
14 Zaragoza 42 30.6 30.5 +0.1 36
15 Leganes 42 34.1 35.4 -1.3 46
16 FC Andorra 42 31.8 33.5 -1.7 58
17 Huesca 42 27.3 29.6 -2.3 38
18 Real Sociedad II 42 30.7 38.6 -7.9 47
19 AD Ceuta FC 42 35.3 44.9 -9.6 61
20 Mirandes 42 28.2 38.8 -10.6 40
21 Cadiz 42 26.9 39.4 -12.5 43
22 Cultural Leonesa 42 29.1 42.3 -13.2 37
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions