Predictions / Football / Israel. Ligat Ha'al / Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Petah Tikva Hapoel Petah Tikva
Mar 07, 2026 - 18:00
1.49
1.23
43% 25% 31%
Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Hapoel Petah Tikva Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
25.6%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Hapoel Petah Tikva, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Hapoel Tel Aviv remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓ -5.2% 3.83 → 3.63
Move type
⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score
38C
Limited conviction
Market breadth
4/7
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Pinnacle
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Hapoel Petah Tikva

🐢 Slow drift over 154h 59m

Open 4.00
Low / High 3.30
Current 3.63

Market Narrative

Pinnacle led repricing on Hapoel Petah Tikva (5.2%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Hapoel Petah Tikva +17.6 pp
Breadth
4/7
Current market activity
Hapoel Petah Tikva odds shortened ↓ -5.2%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Hapoel Petah Tikva.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hapoel Petah Tikva.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Hapoel Petah Tikva 43.23% 25.59% +17.6 pp
Draw 25.46% 26.32% -0.9 pp
Hapoel Tel Aviv 31.32% 48.1% -16.8 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • Possible value on 1X2: Hapoel Petah Tikva (+6.1% EV at best odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Under 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
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1X2 ✔ Hapoel Petah Tikva (Value)
Match: 43.2% Hapoel Petah Tikva; Market consensus (3-way) 25.6%; Consensus-line EV +6.1%
Primary: Hapoel Petah Tikva — Value · EV +6.1% · Model 43.2%
Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).
⭐ 1X2 Model edge (+EV)
Hapoel Petah Tikva · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 25.6%
Consensus-line EV: +6.1%
Over / Under 2.5 Poor value
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
EV Over -7.5% · EV Under -2.2%
Value lean: Under 2.5
Both Teams To Score Poor value
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
EV Yes -4.1% · EV No -6.3%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (5.0/10) — size down.
Decision strength: 5.0 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -7.5% · EV Under -2.2% (6 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -4.1% · EV No -6.3%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
3.6
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Ligat Ha'al Ligat Ha'al — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 17 4 3 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 15 6 3 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 13 7 4 46
4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 14 5 5 45
5 Maccabi Haifa 24 10 9 5 39
6 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 9 8 7 35
7 Maccabi Netanya 24 9 4 11 31
8 Bnei Sakhnin 24 7 8 9 29
9 Ironi Tiberias 24 7 5 12 26
10 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 6 6 12 24
11 Hapoel Haifa 24 6 6 12 24
12 Ashdod 24 5 8 11 23
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 4 8 12 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Beitar Jerusalem 24 56 27 +29 51
2 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 54 23 +31 55
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 50 28 +22 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 46 25 +21 39
5 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 44 26 +18 45
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 42 53 -11 31
7 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 40 35 +5 35
8 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 34 42 -8 24
9 Hapoel Haifa 24 30 40 -10 24
10 Ashdod 24 30 47 -17 23
11 Ironi Tiberias 24 30 49 -19 26
12 Bnei Sakhnin 24 25 33 -8 29
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 22 35 -13 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 17 57 -40 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 15.4 7.4 +8.0 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 12.4 8.6 +3.8 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 14.6 11.3 +3.3 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 13.1 10.0 +3.1 39
5 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 16.9 15.4 +1.5 24
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 10.7 9.4 +1.3 31
7 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 9.9 9.9 0.0 45
8 Hapoel Haifa 24 8.1 13.9 -5.8 24
9 Bnei Sakhnin 24 5.9 13.1 -7.2 29
10 Ashdod 24 11.7 19.5 -7.8 23
11 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 — — — 35
12 Ironi Tiberias 24 — — — 26
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 — — — 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 — — — 11
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