Predictions / Football / Israel. Ligat Ha'al / Ironi Tiberias vs Ashdod

Ironi Tiberias vs Ashdod Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ironi Tiberias Ironi Tiberias
Mar 07, 2026 - 18:00
1.49
1.23
43% 25% 31%
Ashdod Ashdod

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite
Ironi Tiberias Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
36.0%
Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass

Summary:

The model and market both lean Ironi Tiberias, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Ashdod remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Draw ↑ +2.5% 3.24 → 3.32
Move type
⚠️ Volatile market
Steam Score
22C
Limited conviction
Market breadth
3/6
Phase
Volatile
Ref book
Pinnacle
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Highest consensus move

Odds path — Draw

🐢 Slow drift over 163h

Open 3.32
Low / High 3.10
Current 3.32

Market Narrative

Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.32 → 3.10 → 3.32) — net 2.5% but intraday chop is elevated.

Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass
Largest gap
Ironi Tiberias +7.2 pp
Breadth
3/6
Current market activity
Draw odds lengthened ↑ +2.5%.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ironi Tiberias.

However, Draw has seen drift — odds lengthened by 2.5%, suggesting weakening support.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Ironi Tiberias 43.23% 36.05% +7.2 pp
Draw 25.46% 28.31% -2.9 pp
Ashdod 31.32% 35.64% -4.3 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Ironi Tiberias vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Under 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 43.2% Ironi Tiberias; Market consensus (3-way) 36.0%; Consensus-line EV -0.3%
No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.
1X2 Pass
Ironi Tiberias · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 36.0%
Consensus-line EV: -0.3%
Over / Under 2.5 Poor value
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
EV Over -6.5% · EV Under -3.2%
Value lean: Under 2.5
Both Teams To Score Poor value
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
EV Yes -5.8% · EV No -4.1%
Value lean: BTTS No
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -6.5% · EV Under -3.2% (5 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -5.8% · EV No -4.1%
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.56
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Ligat Ha'al Ligat Ha'al — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 17 4 3 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 15 6 3 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 13 7 4 46
4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 14 5 5 45
5 Maccabi Haifa 24 10 9 5 39
6 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 9 8 7 35
7 Maccabi Netanya 24 9 4 11 31
8 Bnei Sakhnin 24 7 8 9 29
9 Ironi Tiberias 24 7 5 12 26
10 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 6 6 12 24
11 Hapoel Haifa 24 6 6 12 24
12 Ashdod 24 5 8 11 23
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 4 8 12 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Beitar Jerusalem 24 56 27 +29 51
2 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 54 23 +31 55
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 50 28 +22 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 46 25 +21 39
5 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 44 26 +18 45
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 42 53 -11 31
7 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 40 35 +5 35
8 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 34 42 -8 24
9 Hapoel Haifa 24 30 40 -10 24
10 Ashdod 24 30 47 -17 23
11 Ironi Tiberias 24 30 49 -19 26
12 Bnei Sakhnin 24 25 33 -8 29
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 22 35 -13 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 17 57 -40 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 15.4 7.4 +8.0 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 12.4 8.6 +3.8 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 14.6 11.3 +3.3 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 13.1 10.0 +3.1 39
5 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 16.9 15.4 +1.5 24
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 10.7 9.4 +1.3 31
7 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 9.9 9.9 0.0 45
8 Hapoel Haifa 24 8.1 13.9 -5.8 24
9 Bnei Sakhnin 24 5.9 13.1 -7.2 29
10 Ashdod 24 11.7 19.5 -7.8 23
11 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 — — — 35
12 Ironi Tiberias 24 — — — 26
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 — — — 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 — — — 11
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