Predictions / Football / Israel. Ligat Ha'al / Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Strong steam move across 8/10 sportsbooks on Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva
Mar 01, 2026 - 18:15
1.49
1.23
43% 25% 31%
Hapoel Petah Tikva Hapoel Petah Tikva

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Hapoel Beer Sheva Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
67.8%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Both lean Hapoel Beer Sheva, but the market prices them higher (67.8% vs model 43.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓ -7.1% 7.0 → 6.5
Move type
⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score
51B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
8/10
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Hapoel Petah Tikva

🐢 Slow drift over 111h 42m

Open 8.80
Low / High 5.70
Current 6.50

Market Narrative

Pinnacle led repricing on Hapoel Petah Tikva (7.1%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Hapoel Beer Sheva -24.6 pp
Breadth
8/10
Current market activity
Hapoel Petah Tikva odds shortened ↓ -7.1%.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Outcome Fair Market Edge
Hapoel Beer Sheva 43.23% 67.78% -24.6 pp
Draw 25.46% 18.72% +6.7 pp
Hapoel Petah Tikva 31.32% 13.51% +17.8 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Model Validation Required

The model and market differ materially (24.6 percentage points). Additional validation is recommended before interpreting this comparison.

  • Extreme model-market divergence detected.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 43.2% Hapoel Beer Sheva; Market consensus (3-way) 67.8%; Consensus-line EV -20.5%
No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
⭐ 1X2 Lean
Hapoel Beer Sheva · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 67.8%
Consensus-line EV: -20.5%
Best available bookmaker line: +10.0% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (4.0/10) — size down.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Hapoel Petah Tikva market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Hapoel Petah Tikva

Odds move
7.00 → 6.50 (↓ -7.1%)
Market breadth
8/10
Steam score
51 (B)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.36
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Ligat Ha'al Ligat Ha'al — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 17 4 3 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 15 6 3 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 13 7 4 46
4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 14 5 5 45
5 Maccabi Haifa 24 10 9 5 39
6 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 9 8 7 35
7 Maccabi Netanya 24 9 4 11 31
8 Bnei Sakhnin 24 7 8 9 29
9 Ironi Tiberias 24 7 5 12 26
10 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 6 6 12 24
11 Hapoel Haifa 24 6 6 12 24
12 Ashdod 24 5 8 11 23
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 4 8 12 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Beitar Jerusalem 24 56 27 +29 51
2 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 54 23 +31 55
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 50 28 +22 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 46 25 +21 39
5 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 44 26 +18 45
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 42 53 -11 31
7 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 40 35 +5 35
8 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 34 42 -8 24
9 Hapoel Haifa 24 30 40 -10 24
10 Ashdod 24 30 47 -17 23
11 Ironi Tiberias 24 30 49 -19 26
12 Bnei Sakhnin 24 25 33 -8 29
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 22 35 -13 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 17 57 -40 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 15.4 7.4 +8.0 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 12.4 8.6 +3.8 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 14.6 11.3 +3.3 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 13.1 10.0 +3.1 39
5 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 16.9 15.4 +1.5 24
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 10.7 9.4 +1.3 31
7 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 9.9 9.9 0.0 45
8 Hapoel Haifa 24 8.1 13.9 -5.8 24
9 Bnei Sakhnin 24 5.9 13.1 -7.2 29
10 Ashdod 24 11.7 19.5 -7.8 23
11 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 — — — 35
12 Ironi Tiberias 24 — — — 26
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 — — — 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 — — — 11
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