Predictions / Football / Israel. Ligat Ha'al / Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias

Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Haifa Maccabi Haifa
Jan 31, 2026 - 17:30 HT
2
1
43% 25% 31%
Ironi Tiberias Ironi Tiberias

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Maccabi Haifa Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
70.7%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Both lean Maccabi Haifa, but the market prices them higher (70.7% vs model 43.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Ironi Tiberias ↓ -6.2% 8.0 → 7.5
Move type
⚠️ Volatile market
Steam Score
19C
Limited conviction
Market breadth
2/12
Phase
Volatile
Ref book
Bet365
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Ironi Tiberias

🐢 Slow drift over 87h 48m

Open 9.10
Low / High 6.09
Current 7.50

Market Narrative

Volatile two-way pricing on Ironi Tiberias (swing 9.10 → 6.09 → 7.50) — net 6.2% but intraday chop is elevated.

Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Maccabi Haifa -27.4 pp
Breadth
2/12
Current market activity
Ironi Tiberias odds shortened ↓ -6.2%.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Outcome Fair Market Edge
Maccabi Haifa 43.23% 70.67% -27.4 pp
Draw 25.46% 17.74% +7.7 pp
Ironi Tiberias 31.32% 11.6% +19.7 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Model Validation Required

The model and market differ materially (27.4 percentage points). Additional validation is recommended before interpreting this comparison.

  • Extreme model-market divergence detected.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 43.2% Maccabi Haifa; Market consensus (3-way) 70.7%; Consensus-line EV -21.9%
No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
⭐ 1X2 Lean
Maccabi Haifa · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 70.7%
Consensus-line EV: -21.9%
Best available bookmaker line: +12.1% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (4.0/10) — size down.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.28
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Ligat Ha'al Ligat Ha'al — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 17 4 3 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 15 6 3 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 13 7 4 46
4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 14 5 5 45
5 Maccabi Haifa 24 10 9 5 39
6 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 9 8 7 35
7 Maccabi Netanya 24 9 4 11 31
8 Bnei Sakhnin 24 7 8 9 29
9 Ironi Tiberias 24 7 5 12 26
10 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 6 6 12 24
11 Hapoel Haifa 24 6 6 12 24
12 Ashdod 24 5 8 11 23
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 4 8 12 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Beitar Jerusalem 24 56 27 +29 51
2 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 54 23 +31 55
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 50 28 +22 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 46 25 +21 39
5 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 44 26 +18 45
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 42 53 -11 31
7 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 40 35 +5 35
8 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 34 42 -8 24
9 Hapoel Haifa 24 30 40 -10 24
10 Ashdod 24 30 47 -17 23
11 Ironi Tiberias 24 30 49 -19 26
12 Bnei Sakhnin 24 25 33 -8 29
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 22 35 -13 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 17 57 -40 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hapoel Beer Sheva 24 15.4 7.4 +8.0 55
2 Beitar Jerusalem 24 12.4 8.6 +3.8 51
3 Maccabi Tel Aviv 24 14.6 11.3 +3.3 46
4 Maccabi Haifa 24 13.1 10.0 +3.1 39
5 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 24 16.9 15.4 +1.5 24
6 Maccabi Netanya 24 10.7 9.4 +1.3 31
7 Hapoel Tel Aviv 24 9.9 9.9 0.0 45
8 Hapoel Haifa 24 8.1 13.9 -5.8 24
9 Bnei Sakhnin 24 5.9 13.1 -7.2 29
10 Ashdod 24 11.7 19.5 -7.8 23
11 Hapoel Petah Tikva 24 — — — 35
12 Ironi Tiberias 24 — — — 26
13 Hapoel Katamon 24 — — — 20
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 24 — — — 11
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