Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / Emmen vs Jong Utrecht

Emmen vs Jong Utrecht Sharp money alert: Jong Utrecht ↓ -15.2% market move detected

Emmen Emmen
Feb 06, 2026 - 19:00
1.44
2.21
24% 22% 54%
Jong Utrecht Jong Utrecht

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Jong Utrecht Slight favourite
Model probability
54.0%
Market probability
32.9%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Jong Utrecht, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Jong Utrecht ↓ -15.2% 3.3 → 2.8
Move type
🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score
85A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth
13/14
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Jong Utrecht

🐢 Slow drift over 59h 37m

Open 3.75
Low / High 2.68
Current 2.80

Market Narrative

13/14 books synchronized on Jong Utrecht (15.2% steam, score 85) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Jong Utrecht +21.1 pp
Breadth
13/14
Current market activity
Jong Utrecht odds shortened ↓ -15.2%.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Outcome Fair Market Edge
Emmen 23.59% 42.79% -19.2 pp
Draw 22.46% 24.32% -1.9 pp
Jong Utrecht 53.95% 32.89% +21.1 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Model Validation Required

The model and market differ materially (21.1 percentage points). Additional validation is recommended before interpreting this comparison.

  • Extreme model-market divergence detected.
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1X2 ✔ Jong Utrecht (Value)
Match: 54.0% Jong Utrecht; Market consensus (3-way) 32.9%; Consensus-line EV +10.7%
Primary: Jong Utrecht — Value · EV +10.7% · Model 54.0%
⭐ 1X2 Best value (+EV)
Jong Utrecht · Model probability 54.0%
Market consensus (3-way) 32.9%
Consensus-line EV: +10.7%
Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 70.6% · Under 2.5 29.4%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 69.0% · No 31.0%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-2
Probability 9.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 7.0 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Jong Utrecht market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on Jong Utrecht

Odds move
3.30 → 2.80 (↓ -15.2%)
Market breadth
13/14
Steam score
85 (A+)
Current status
Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.81
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
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How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 ADO Den Haag 38 29 2 7 89
2 Cambuur 38 23 9 6 78
3 Willem II 38 20 8 10 68
4 De Graafschap 38 18 9 11 63
5 Almere City FC 38 18 4 16 58
6 Waalwijk 38 16 10 12 58
7 Jong PSV U21 38 17 5 16 56
8 Roda 38 14 13 11 55
9 Den Bosch 38 14 9 15 51
10 Dordrecht 38 12 11 15 47
11 FC Eindhoven 38 14 5 19 47
12 Jong Utrecht 38 12 10 16 46
13 VVV Venlo 38 13 6 19 45
14 Emmen 38 12 9 17 45
15 Vitesse 38 15 11 12 44
16 FC OSS 38 11 11 16 44
17 Jong AZ 38 12 4 22 40
18 Helmond Sport 38 10 9 19 39
19 MVV 38 9 11 18 38
20 Jong Ajax 38 9 8 21 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ADO Den Haag 38 90 37 +53 89
2 Almere City FC 38 78 63 +15 58
3 Cambuur 38 75 48 +27 78
4 De Graafschap 38 74 58 +16 63
5 Waalwijk 38 71 59 +12 58
6 Jong PSV U21 38 66 64 +2 56
7 Den Bosch 38 65 69 -4 51
8 Vitesse 38 64 55 +9 44
9 Jong AZ 38 61 76 -15 40
10 Willem II 38 59 42 +17 68
11 Roda 38 59 54 +5 55
12 Jong Utrecht 38 58 62 -4 46
13 Emmen 38 58 72 -14 45
14 FC OSS 38 54 64 -10 44
15 FC Eindhoven 38 51 69 -18 47
16 VVV Venlo 38 50 58 -8 45
17 Jong Ajax 38 50 73 -23 35
18 Dordrecht 38 48 56 -8 47
19 Helmond Sport 38 42 62 -20 39
20 MVV 38 41 73 -32 38
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 ADO Den Haag 38 51.0 22.6 +28.4 89
2 Waalwijk 38 41.5 32.6 +8.9 58
3 Almere City FC 38 41.1 32.7 +8.4 58
4 Roda 38 41.1 33.5 +7.6 55
5 Cambuur 38 35.3 28.7 +6.6 78
6 Dordrecht 38 36.3 30.2 +6.1 47
7 De Graafschap 38 50.2 44.6 +5.6 63
8 Jong Utrecht 38 35.7 31.3 +4.4 46
9 Vitesse 38 35.0 33.5 +1.5 44
10 VVV Venlo 38 39.8 39.5 +0.3 45
11 Emmen 38 32.5 32.6 -0.1 45
12 Willem II 38 36.9 38.2 -1.3 68
13 Den Bosch 38 32.3 36.4 -4.1 51
14 Helmond Sport 38 31.6 37.2 -5.6 39
15 FC Eindhoven 38 26.1 31.8 -5.7 47
16 Jong AZ 38 28.2 36.4 -8.2 40
17 Jong Ajax 38 26.8 36.4 -9.6 35
18 Jong PSV U21 38 37.5 47.9 -10.4 56
19 FC OSS 38 27.7 40.2 -12.5 44
20 MVV 38 23.8 44.1 -20.3 38
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