Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice

Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice Strong steam move across 10/12 sportsbooks on Zaglebie Lubin

Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin
Jan 30, 2026 - 17:00
1.64
1.19
46% 27% 26%
GKS Katowice GKS Katowice

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite
Zaglebie Lubin Slight favourite
Model probability
46.4%
Market probability
39.1%
Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass

Summary:

The model leans Zaglebie Lubin, with modest separation from other outcomes. Monitor market movement before kickoff.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Zaglebie Lubin ↑ +6.8% 2.2 → 2.35
Move type
⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score
51B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
10/12
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Zaglebie Lubin

🐢 Slow drift over 159h 1m

Open 2.46
Low / High 2.16
Current 2.35

Market Narrative

Pinnacle led repricing on Zaglebie Lubin (6.8%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass
Largest gap
Zaglebie Lubin +7.3 pp
Breadth
10/12
Current market activity
Zaglebie Lubin odds lengthened ↑ +6.8%.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Zaglebie Lubin.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Zaglebie Lubin.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Zaglebie Lubin 46.37% 39.08% +7.3 pp
Draw 27.41% 29.25% -1.8 pp
GKS Katowice 26.22% 31.67% -5.5 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Zaglebie Lubin vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 46.3% Zaglebie Lubin; Market consensus (3-way) 39.1%; Consensus-line EV -1.3%
No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.
⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 53.8% · Under 2.5 46.2%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
1X2 Poor value
Zaglebie Lubin · Model probability 46.3%
Market consensus (3-way) 39.1%
Consensus-line EV: -1.3%
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 11.5%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Zaglebie Lubin market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Zaglebie Lubin

Odds move
2.20 → 2.35 (↑ +6.8%)
Market breadth
10/12
Steam score
51 (B)
Current status
Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.35
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lech Poznan 34 16 12 6 60
2 Gornik Zabrze 34 16 8 10 56
3 Jagiellonia 34 15 11 8 56
4 Raków Częstochowa 34 16 7 11 55
5 GKS Katowice 34 14 8 12 50
6 Legia Warszawa 34 12 13 9 49
7 Zaglebie Lubin 34 13 9 12 48
8 Wisla Plock 34 12 10 12 46
9 Pogon Szczecin 34 13 6 15 45
10 Radomiak Radom 34 11 11 12 44
11 Korona Kielce 34 11 10 13 43
12 Motor Lublin 34 10 13 11 43
13 Cracovia Krakow 34 9 15 10 42
14 Widzew Łódź 34 12 6 16 42
15 Piast Gliwice 34 11 8 15 41
16 Lechia Gdansk 34 12 7 15 38
17 Arka Gdynia 34 9 9 16 36
18 Nieciecza 34 9 7 18 34
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 34 62 45 +17 60
2 Lechia Gdansk 34 62 65 -3 38
3 Jagiellonia 34 56 41 +15 56
4 Radomiak Radom 34 52 53 -1 44
5 Raków Częstochowa 34 51 40 +11 55
6 GKS Katowice 34 51 45 +6 50
7 Gornik Zabrze 34 50 38 +12 56
8 Pogon Szczecin 34 47 49 -2 45
9 Motor Lublin 34 46 53 -7 43
10 Zaglebie Lubin 34 45 38 +7 48
11 Nieciecza 34 43 65 -22 34
12 Legia Warszawa 34 42 37 +5 49
13 Piast Gliwice 34 42 46 -4 41
14 Widzew Łódź 34 41 41 0 42
15 Korona Kielce 34 40 40 0 43
16 Cracovia Krakow 34 39 42 -3 42
17 Wisla Plock 34 34 38 -4 46
18 Arka Gdynia 34 34 61 -27 36
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 34 61.0 37.8 +23.2 60
2 Legia Warszawa 34 46.6 35.5 +11.1 49
3 Raków Częstochowa 34 52.6 43.7 +8.9 55
4 Gornik Zabrze 34 46.1 40.2 +5.9 56
5 Lechia Gdansk 34 51.5 46.0 +5.5 38
6 Piast Gliwice 34 45.8 40.9 +4.9 41
7 Pogon Szczecin 34 53.4 49.1 +4.3 45
8 Cracovia Krakow 34 39.5 36.4 +3.1 42
9 Widzew Łódź 34 38.9 37.5 +1.4 42
10 Wisla Plock 34 44.9 45.4 -0.5 46
11 Korona Kielce 34 49.9 51.2 -1.3 43
12 GKS Katowice 34 42.0 46.5 -4.5 50
13 Radomiak Radom 34 42.7 48.4 -5.7 44
14 Jagiellonia 34 44.4 50.6 -6.2 56
15 Zaglebie Lubin 34 35.7 44.8 -9.1 48
16 Arka Gdynia 34 36.6 49.7 -13.1 36
17 Nieciecza 34 44.5 58.1 -13.6 34
18 Motor Lublin 34 40.0 54.5 -14.5 43
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