Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice

Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice Sharp money alert: Draw ↑ +11.0% market move detected

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
Feb 04, 2026 - 19:30
2.14
1.43
53% 23% 24%
GKS Katowice GKS Katowice

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite
Jagiellonia Slight favourite
Model probability
52.7%
Market probability
55.7%
Market agreement
Strong
Validation
Pass

Summary:

The model and market both identify Jagiellonia as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Draw ↑ +11.0% 3.9 → 4.33
Move type
📈 Steam
Steam Score
62A
Strong sharp signal
Market breadth
10/14
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: SBO
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Draw

🐢 Slow drift over 21h 35m

Open 4.37
Low / High 3.50
Current 4.33

Market Narrative

Multi-book steam on Draw (11.0%, 10/14) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.

Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Strong
Validation
Pass
Largest gap
GKS Katowice +3.2 pp
Breadth
10/14
Current market activity
Draw odds lengthened ↑ +11.0%.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

However, Draw has seen drift — odds lengthened by 11.0%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Draw — odds lengthened by 11.0% (weakening support).

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Jagiellonia 52.69% 55.74% -3.0 pp
Draw 22.99% 23.13% -0.1 pp
GKS Katowice 24.32% 21.13% +3.2 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Jagiellonia vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 52.7% Jagiellonia; Market consensus (3-way) 55.7%; Consensus-line EV -10.4%
No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.
⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 69.2% · Under 2.5 30.8%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 68.2% · No 31.8%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
1X2 Poor value
Jagiellonia · Model probability 52.7%
Market consensus (3-way) 55.7%
Consensus-line EV: -10.4%
Best available bookmaker line: -4.8% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
2-1
Probability 9.2%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 5.0 / 10
  • No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)
  • No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Draw market context before kickoff

📈 Steam on Draw

Odds move
3.90 → 4.33 (↑ +11.0%)
Market breadth
10/14
Steam score
62 (A)
Current status
Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
4.38
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lech Poznan 34 16 12 6 60
2 Gornik Zabrze 34 16 8 10 56
3 Jagiellonia 34 15 11 8 56
4 Raków Częstochowa 34 16 7 11 55
5 GKS Katowice 34 14 8 12 50
6 Legia Warszawa 34 12 13 9 49
7 Zaglebie Lubin 34 13 9 12 48
8 Wisla Plock 34 12 10 12 46
9 Pogon Szczecin 34 13 6 15 45
10 Radomiak Radom 34 11 11 12 44
11 Korona Kielce 34 11 10 13 43
12 Motor Lublin 34 10 13 11 43
13 Cracovia Krakow 34 9 15 10 42
14 Widzew Łódź 34 12 6 16 42
15 Piast Gliwice 34 11 8 15 41
16 Lechia Gdansk 34 12 7 15 38
17 Arka Gdynia 34 9 9 16 36
18 Nieciecza 34 9 7 18 34
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 34 62 45 +17 60
2 Lechia Gdansk 34 62 65 -3 38
3 Jagiellonia 34 56 41 +15 56
4 Radomiak Radom 34 52 53 -1 44
5 Raków Częstochowa 34 51 40 +11 55
6 GKS Katowice 34 51 45 +6 50
7 Gornik Zabrze 34 50 38 +12 56
8 Pogon Szczecin 34 47 49 -2 45
9 Motor Lublin 34 46 53 -7 43
10 Zaglebie Lubin 34 45 38 +7 48
11 Nieciecza 34 43 65 -22 34
12 Legia Warszawa 34 42 37 +5 49
13 Piast Gliwice 34 42 46 -4 41
14 Widzew Łódź 34 41 41 0 42
15 Korona Kielce 34 40 40 0 43
16 Cracovia Krakow 34 39 42 -3 42
17 Wisla Plock 34 34 38 -4 46
18 Arka Gdynia 34 34 61 -27 36
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 34 61.0 37.8 +23.2 60
2 Legia Warszawa 34 46.6 35.5 +11.1 49
3 Raków Częstochowa 34 52.6 43.7 +8.9 55
4 Gornik Zabrze 34 46.1 40.2 +5.9 56
5 Lechia Gdansk 34 51.5 46.0 +5.5 38
6 Piast Gliwice 34 45.8 40.9 +4.9 41
7 Pogon Szczecin 34 53.4 49.1 +4.3 45
8 Cracovia Krakow 34 39.5 36.4 +3.1 42
9 Widzew Łódź 34 38.9 37.5 +1.4 42
10 Wisla Plock 34 44.9 45.4 -0.5 46
11 Korona Kielce 34 49.9 51.2 -1.3 43
12 GKS Katowice 34 42.0 46.5 -4.5 50
13 Radomiak Radom 34 42.7 48.4 -5.7 44
14 Jagiellonia 34 44.4 50.6 -6.2 56
15 Zaglebie Lubin 34 35.7 44.8 -9.1 48
16 Arka Gdynia 34 36.6 49.7 -13.1 36
17 Nieciecza 34 44.5 58.1 -13.6 34
18 Motor Lublin 34 40.0 54.5 -14.5 43
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