Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB I / Ferencvarosi TC vs Puskas Academy

Ferencvarosi TC vs Puskas Academy Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC
Mar 16, 2026 - 19:00
1.47
0.95
48% 30% 23%
Puskas Academy Puskas Academy

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Ferencvarosi TC Slight favourite
Model probability
47.6%
Market probability
65.7%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Ferencvarosi TC, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Ferencvarosi TC -18.0 pp
Breadth
6/6
Current market activity
No meaningful directional movement yet.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ferencvarosi TC than the current fair estimate.

Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Ferencvarosi TC is the dominant side.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Ferencvarosi TC 47.61% 65.65% -18.0 pp
Draw 29.61% 21.22% +8.4 pp
Puskas Academy 22.78% 13.13% +9.7 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • No value on 1X2 (Ferencvarosi TC vs. current odds)
  • Possible value: Under 2.5 (+24.3% EV at best odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (4.5/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
Premium betting site 1xbet: New users can use the promo code 1x_3342271 to receive $100 cash.
1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 47.6% Ferencvarosi TC; Market consensus (3-way) 65.6%; Consensus-line EV -19.1%
No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Model edge (+EV)
Over 2.5 43.5% · Under 2.5 56.5%
EV Over -27.8% · EV Under +24.3%
Value lean: Under 2.5
1X2 Lean
Ferencvarosi TC · Model probability 47.6%
Market consensus (3-way) 65.6%
Consensus-line EV: -19.1%
Best available bookmaker line: +3.5% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 48.8% · No 51.2%
EV Yes -10.7% · EV No -0.2%
Value lean: BTTS No
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-0
Probability 13.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (4.5/10) — size down.
Total expected goals (xG sum) is in a borderline band — outcome variance is high. (ΣxG ≈ 2.42)
Decision strength: 4.5 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -27.8% · EV Under +24.3% (5 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -10.7% · EV No -0.2%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Ferencvarosi TC market context before kickoff

◆ Efficient market on Ferencvarosi TC

Odds move
1.40 → 1.40 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
6/6
Steam score
15 (C)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.4
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 33 20 9 4 69
2 Ferencvarosi TC 33 21 5 7 68
3 Paks 33 15 8 10 53
4 Debreceni VSC 33 14 11 8 53
5 Zalaegerszegi TE 33 13 9 11 48
6 Puskas Academy 33 13 7 13 46
7 Ujpest 33 11 7 15 40
8 Kisvarda FC 33 11 7 15 40
9 Nyiregyhaza 33 10 10 13 40
10 MTK Budapest 33 9 11 13 38
11 Diosgyori VTK 33 6 10 17 28
12 Kazincbarcikai 33 6 4 23 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ferencvarosi TC 33 67 31 +36 68
2 Gyori ETO FC 33 65 30 +35 69
3 Paks 33 63 46 +17 53
4 MTK Budapest 33 55 62 -7 38
5 Debreceni VSC 33 51 41 +10 53
6 Zalaegerszegi TE 33 49 43 +6 48
7 Ujpest 33 48 57 -9 40
8 Nyiregyhaza 33 47 57 -10 40
9 Puskas Academy 33 43 43 0 46
10 Diosgyori VTK 33 39 65 -26 28
11 Kisvarda FC 33 36 49 -13 40
12 Kazincbarcikai 33 31 70 -39 22
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Ferencvarosi TC 33 20.8 11.2 +9.6 68
2 Zalaegerszegi TE 33 15.9 15.2 +0.7 48
3 Ujpest 33 15.3 14.8 +0.5 40
4 Gyori ETO FC 33 2.3 2.2 +0.1 69
5 Paks 33 16.4 16.4 0.0 53
6 Puskas Academy 33 14.3 15.0 -0.7 46
7 MTK Budapest 33 18.3 19.1 -0.8 38
8 Kisvarda FC 33 13.9 15.8 -1.9 40
9 Debreceni VSC 33 15.3 18.8 -3.5 53
10 Diosgyori VTK 33 14.2 18.1 -3.9 28
11 Nyiregyhaza 33 — — — 40
12 Kazincbarcikai 33 — — — 22
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