Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / FC Juarez vs Puebla

Prediction Audit: FC Juarez vs Puebla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Juarez FC Juarez
Oct 25, 2025 - 01:00
4 1.76
4 1.04
xG Accuracy: 24%
Puebla Puebla

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).

The model had projected FC Juarez at 52.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Juarez Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.80) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC Juarez; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 4–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · FC Juarez 1.76 — Puebla 1.04
  2. Oct 25, 2025 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 19, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4556403

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FC Juarez 4–4 Puebla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 36
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 36
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 33
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 31
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 30
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 26
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 25
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 25
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 23
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 22
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 20
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 19
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 18
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 18
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 18
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 15
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 13
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 34 17 +17 36
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 33 17 +16 36
3 Cruz Azul 17 31 18 +13 33
4 Toluca 17 28 16 +12 30
5 Tigres UANL 17 28 18 +10 25
6 FC Juarez 17 26 32 -6 19
7 Pachuca 17 25 19 +6 31
8 Atletico San Luis 17 24 27 -3 18
9 Monterrey 17 22 24 -2 18
10 Leon 17 22 32 -10 22
11 Mazatlán 17 22 37 -15 15
12 Club America 17 20 17 +3 25
13 Santos Laguna 17 20 38 -18 12
14 Club Tijuana 17 19 17 +2 23
15 Necaxa 17 19 25 -6 18
16 Club Queretaro 17 17 21 -4 20
17 Atlas 17 16 18 -2 26
18 Puebla 17 13 26 -13 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 17 66.2 37.2 +29.0 30
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 50.6 30.3 +20.3 36
3 Tigres UANL 17 57.5 37.8 +19.7 25
4 Cruz Azul 17 55.0 36.7 +18.3 33
5 Club America 17 43.4 30.7 +12.7 25
6 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 47.5 38.8 +8.7 36
7 Monterrey 17 47.8 43.3 +4.5 18
8 Pachuca 17 35.2 34.7 +0.5 31
9 FC Juarez 17 43.8 46.9 -3.1 19
10 Atletico San Luis 17 37.6 40.8 -3.2 18
11 Necaxa 17 37.4 41.6 -4.2 18
12 Leon 17 35.9 46.2 -10.3 22
13 Club Queretaro 17 33.4 46.9 -13.5 20
14 Mazatlán 17 36.5 50.6 -14.1 15
15 Santos Laguna 17 37.6 51.8 -14.2 12
16 Club Tijuana 17 40.7 55.4 -14.7 23
17 Atlas 17 29.2 47.1 -17.9 26
18 Puebla 17 31.0 49.3 -18.3 13
Liga MX Mexico. Liga MX Predictions