Prediction Audit: Leon vs FC Juarez Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leon

Sep 28, 2026 - 01:00

2 1.86

1 1.13

xG Accuracy: 93%

FC Juarez

AI correctly predicted the Leon win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Leon Leon ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Leon	53.1%	61.0%	-8.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.4%	22.7%	+2.6 pp	Aligned
FC Juarez	21.6%	16.2%	+5.3 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Leon's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.1%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Leon win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Leon. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.99) — 3 goals materialised
Leon attacking xG significantly stronger (1.86 vs 1.13)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Leon higher (61.1% vs model 53.1%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Leon win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 28, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leon 53.1% · Draw 25.4% · FC Juarez 21.5%
- xG · Leon 1.86 — FC Juarez 1.13
Sep 28, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leon 1.58 · Draw 4.24 · FC Juarez 5.94
- Implied 1X2 · Leon 61.0% · Draw 22.7% · FC Juarez 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 28, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leon 1.58 · Draw 4.24 · FC Juarez 5.94
- Implied 1X2 · Leon 61.0% · Draw 22.7% · FC Juarez 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 28, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Leon win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10249534

Closing Odds 1.58

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Leon win · Leon 2–1 FC Juarez

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga MX
Fixture: Leon vs FC Juarez
Kickoff: 2026-09-28 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 53.1% · Draw 25.4% · Away 21.5%
xG (showing): Leon 1.86 — FC Juarez 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.99)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 58.5% · Implied: 54.7% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +2.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 58.5% · No 41.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	20
2	Guadalajara Chivas	10	5	3	2	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17
4	Club Queretaro	9	5	2	2	17
5	Atlas	10	5	2	3	17
6	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	16
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	14
8	Club Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	3	3	4	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	12
14	Atlante FC	10	2	5	3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10
17	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	8
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Toluca	10	23	12	+11	20
2	Cruz Azul	10	19	18	+1	16
3	Club America	8	17	8	+9	17
4	Guadalajara Chivas	10	17	10	+7	18
5	Monterrey	9	16	14	+2	13
6	Atlas	10	16	17	-1	17
7	Pachuca	10	15	11	+4	12
8	Club Tijuana	9	14	13	+1	14
9	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	14	16	-2	12
10	Atletico San Luis	10	14	18	-4	12
11	Club Queretaro	9	13	8	+5	17
12	Leon	9	12	10	+2	14
13	Atlante FC	10	12	15	-3	11
14	Puebla	10	11	12	-1	14
15	Tigres UANL	10	10	13	-3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	10	15	-5	10
17	Necaxa	9	10	16	-6	8
18	FC Juarez	9	6	23	-17	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Tijuana	9	8.2	3.2	+5.0	14
2	Cruz Azul	10	11.3	7.5	+3.8	16
3	Monterrey	9	9.8	6.2	+3.6	13
4	Club America	8	9.7	6.1	+3.6	17
5	Toluca	10	8.9	6.1	+2.8	20
6	Tigres UANL	10	9.7	7.3	+2.4	10
7	Guadalajara Chivas	10	8.1	5.8	+2.3	18
8	Necaxa	9	6.8	6.1	+0.7	8
9	Santos Laguna	10	10.1	9.7	+0.4	10
10	Club Queretaro	9	8.6	8.8	-0.2	17
11	Leon	9	8.7	9.4	-0.7	14
12	Puebla	10	7.3	8.9	-1.6	14
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	6.4	8.0	-1.6	12
14	Pachuca	10	7.4	9.2	-1.8	12
15	Atlas	10	6.6	9.5	-2.9	17
16	Atletico San Luis	10	7.8	11.1	-3.3	12
17	Atlante FC	10	6.3	10.1	-3.8	11
18	FC Juarez	9	4.7	13.4	-8.7	3