Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Uruguay. Primera División - Apertura
AI Value Price Scanner
AI Model View
Defensor Sporting
- Model probability
- 38.0%
- OddsGPT Fair Odds
- 2.63
Model-only valuation — Based on OddsGPT model probability before market adjustment.
Market View
- Consensus Odds
- 2.34
- Raw Market Implied Probability
- 42.7%
- No-vig Market Probability
- 40.8%
Model-Market Gap
-2.8 percentage points
Market Disagreement Level Normal
Selected Market: Defensor Sporting
AI Match Lean: Defensor Sporting (38.0%)
- Probability Advantage
- -2.8 percentage points (Model probability 38.0% vs No-vig market probability 40.8%)
- Consensus AI Price Edge
- -11.0% @ Market consensus 2.34
AI Model
Defensor Sporting
- Model probability
- 38.0%
- OddsGPT Fair Odds
- 2.63
- Market consensus
- 2.34
- Model Forecast Strength
- Moderate
- Pricing Convergence
- High
- Model probability 38.0% · Market implied probability 42.7%
- Model Probability Gap
- -2.8 percentage points
Model vs Market
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| OddsGPT AI | 38.0% |
| Raw Market Probability | 42.7% |
| No-vig Market Probability | 40.8% |
| Difference | -2.8 percentage points |
| Bookmaker | Odds | vs Market | AI Price Edge | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | +0% vs market | -11.0% |
AI Price Edge = model probability × available odds − 1. Consensus AI Price Edge = model probability × consensus odds − 1. The prediction page uses a separate Risk-Adjusted Decision EV, which applies market calibration and decision filters before Primary Bet evaluation.
Large AI Price Edge values vs the prediction page usually reflect different metrics (raw price edge here vs Risk-Adjusted Decision EV on the prediction page). They may also indicate model–market disagreement or pricing inefficiency — not a guaranteed profit.
This page compares prices only. It does not recommend a bet size or confirm a Primary Bet. Large AI Price Edge values represent model-market disagreement, not guaranteed betting opportunities.
AI Correct Score Value Scanner
| Score | Model | Fair Odds | Best Market | Price Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.0 | 6.4 · Betano | -20.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 9.9 | 7.5 · Bet365 | -24.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.87 | 9.0 · Bet365 | -17.2% |
Low-liquidity market. Correct score prices can vary widely between bookmakers and may carry higher margins or stake limits.
