Livingston vs Falkirk Sharp money alert: Livingston ↑ +48.1% market move detected

Livingston

Feb 04, 2026 - 19:45 1H

16% 23% 61%

Falkirk

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Falkirk Favourite
Model probability: 60.9%
Market probability: 48.8%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Falkirk, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Livingston ↑ +48.1% 2.7 → 4.0
Move type: 🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score: 99A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth: 14/14
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Livingston

🐢 Slow drift over 187h 9m

Open 4.16

Low / High 2.70

Current 4.00

Market Narrative

14/14 books synchronized on Livingston (48.1% steam, score 99) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Falkirk +12.1 pp
Breadth: 14/14
Current market activity: Livingston odds lengthened ↑ +48.1%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Falkirk.

However, Livingston has seen drift — odds lengthened by 48.1%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Livingston — odds lengthened by 48.1% (weakening support).

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Livingston	16.37%	24.22%	-7.8 pp
Draw	22.71%	26.95%	-4.2 pp
Falkirk	60.92%	48.83%	+12.1 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

Possible value on 1X2: Falkirk (+4.6% EV at best odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.

1X2 ✔ Falkirk (Value)

Match: 60.9% Falkirk; Market consensus (3-way) 48.8%; Consensus-line EV +4.6%

No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.

⭐ 1X2 Model edge (+EV)

Falkirk · Model probability 60.9%

Market consensus (3-way) 48.8%

Consensus-line EV: +4.6%

Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 60.7% · Under 2.5 39.3%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 57.7% · No 42.3%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-2

Probability 9.9%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Execution: No Primary / sized alternative at standard thresholds — other markets may still show +EV in the cards below.

Market insight: A small model–price gap may exist on marginal or high-variance legs — not a default bankroll bet; size down if you experiment. (Technical: at least one tracked line clears the +EV gate at ≥2.0% on best available odds — this does not imply a default bet.)

Decision strength: 5.0 / 10

Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)
At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? Discretionary read only: +EV may appear on thin or longshot legs; compare with your limits.

Livingston market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on Livingston

Odds move: 2.70 → 4.00 (↑ +48.1%)
Market breadth: 14/14
Steam score: 99 (A+)
Current status: Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 1.91
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Premiership — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heart Of Midlothian	33	21	7	5	70
2	Rangers	33	19	12	2	69
3	Celtic	33	21	4	8	67
4	Motherwell	33	14	12	7	54
5	Hibernian	33	13	12	8	51
6	Falkirk	33	13	7	13	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	9	13	11	40
8	Aberdeen	33	9	6	18	33
9	Dundee	33	8	9	16	33
10	ST Mirren	33	7	9	17	30
11	Kilmarnock	33	6	10	17	28
12	Livingston	33	1	13	19	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rangers	33	66	31	+35	69
2	Celtic	33	59	35	+24	67
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	58	28	+30	70
4	Motherwell	33	52	29	+23	54
5	Hibernian	33	51	37	+14	51
6	Falkirk	33	45	48	-3	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	45	54	-9	40
8	Kilmarnock	33	37	65	-28	28
9	Livingston	33	35	66	-31	16
10	Dundee	33	34	53	-19	33
11	Aberdeen	33	33	48	-15	33
12	ST Mirren	33	27	48	-21	30

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	33	53.2	26.7	+26.5	67
2	Rangers	33	53.1	30.6	+22.5	69
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	43.5	29.4	+14.1	70
4	Motherwell	33	42.9	30.6	+12.3	54
5	Hibernian	33	42.4	35.3	+7.1	51
6	Falkirk	33	38.5	38.7	-0.2	46
7	ST Mirren	33	30.2	35.4	-5.2	30
8	Dundee Utd	33	36.0	45.4	-9.4	40
9	Aberdeen	33	35.0	47.8	-12.8	33
10	Dundee	33	30.9	44.9	-14.0	33
11	Kilmarnock	33	33.7	52.8	-19.1	28
12	Livingston	33	28.8	50.8	-22.0	16