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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Cetatea Suceava Cetatea Suceava ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cetatea Suceava win · Cetatea Suceava 4–0 CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "76067db8f37743d53fa08dbeee939c79e1c257a6f5b94e406a4d85c5b3f5e833",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1328,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4937,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.83
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Cetatea Suceava Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.03,
"market_odds": 1.83,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 10.7,
"prob_edge": -18.5,
"value_pct": -33.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cetatea Suceava or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cetatea Suceava or CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Cetatea Suceava or CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Cetatea Suceava"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 23.8,
"implied_prob": 27.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.62
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.96,
"draw": 25.67,
"home": 49.37
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 07:59:28",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 07:29:59",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cetatea Suceava",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.37,
"gap_pp": -13.28,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.67,
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.96,
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"kind": "1x2_a",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.79,
"gap_pp": -6.59,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.21,
"gap_pp": 6.59,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 3.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.67,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.62,
"early": 3.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.96,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.79,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.06,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.21,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5283
},
"p_final": 0.4705,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0412,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4705
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2132,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0097,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"sort_key": 1797.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.26,
"hero_label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"market_prob_pct": 49.4,
"market_team": "Cetatea Suceava",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Cetatea Suceava",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cetatea Suceava at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cetatea Suceava as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cetatea Suceava",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cetatea Suceava \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602476 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.26,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Cetatea Suceava",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cetatea Suceava at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cetatea Suceava as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cetatea Suceava",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cetatea Suceava \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602476 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cetatea Suceava 1.32 xG vs CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea 1.28 \u2192 Cetatea Suceava 36.1%",
"Market: Cetatea Suceava ~49.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Cetatea Suceava +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cetatea Suceava with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.26,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"market_prob": 49.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.98,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.28,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"market_prob": 24.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cetatea Suceava",
"market_prob_pct": 49.37,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cetatea Suceava"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cetatea Suceava\u0027s win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.3,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Cetatea Suceava \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cetatea Suceava 1.32 xG vs CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea 1.28 \u2192 Cetatea Suceava 36.1%",
"Market: Cetatea Suceava ~49.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Cetatea Suceava +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cetatea Suceava with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.26,
"hero_label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cetatea Suceava than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cetatea Suceava than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Cetatea Suceava than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Cetatea Suceava more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Cetatea Suceava (pricing gap 13.3 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cetatea Suceava higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.26,
"edge_pp": -13.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cetatea Suceava",
"market_prob_pct": 49.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.98,
"edge_pp": 3.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.28,
"edge_pp": 9.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"market_prob_pct": 24.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cetatea Suceava than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cetatea Suceava (49.4%).",
"Cetatea Suceava \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Cetatea Suceava",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "Cetatea Suceava",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "csm-ramnicu-valcea",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"away_team_id": 2616,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2616.webp",
"away_team_name": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"away_team_public_id": "298TCCjNCtv7Wc",
"away_team_slug": "csm-ramnicu-valcea",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1602476,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "Cetatea Suceava",
"home_team_id": 26674,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26674.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cetatea Suceava",
"home_team_public_id": "15A6T5B5SBsI1J",
"home_team_slug": "cetatea-suceava",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cetatea-suceava",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga II",
"league_id": 284,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/284.webp",
"league_name": "Liga II",
"league_public_id": "1bA5sDTgN3noN7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 08:00:00",
"public_id": "3u2zrO8hpqV3Cq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Suceava",
"venue_name": "Areni Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2582,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0097,
"implied_prob": 0.2496,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2496,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4937
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2736
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.282,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.2567,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2496,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4937
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.268
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4805,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0638,
"ev": -0.2132,
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2496,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4937
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4299
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0661,
"ev": 0.2395,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": 0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1855,
"ev": -0.3395,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2154,
"alpha_yes": 0.237,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0285,
"edge_yes": -0.0285,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0695,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0934,
"implied_no": 0.4265,
"implied_yes": 0.5735,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4328,
"p_final_yes": 0.5666,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2253,
"alpha_under": 0.2048,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": -0.0619,
"edge_under": 0.0619,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1019,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"implied_over": 0.5439,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5418,
"implied_under": 0.4561,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5283
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4705
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5283,
"p_final_under": 0.4705,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2395,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cetatea Suceava at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cetatea Suceava as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cetatea Suceava",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cetatea Suceava \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602476 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cetatea Suceava).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0638,
"ev": -0.2132,
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cetatea Suceava"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"market_prob": 0.4582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2253,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.5418,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5283
},
"p_final": 0.4705,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.4582,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4705
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0619,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4561,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1602476,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CSM R\u00e2mnicu V\u00e2lcea",
"home": "Cetatea Suceava"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4561,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4937,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1602476,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T07:59:30.919323+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga II — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slatina | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timișoara | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Popești-Leordeni | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Concordia Chiajna | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | CSM Reșița | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Gloria Bistriţa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Bacău | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Cetatea Suceava | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | CS Afumați | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chindia Târgoviște | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Bihor Oradea | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | ASA Târgu Mureș | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | Ştefăneşti | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Unirea Slobozia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 19 | CSM Satu Mare | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Dumbrăviţa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 21 | Dinamo Bucarest | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 22 | CSA Steaua București | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Concordia Chiajna | 7 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | FC Bacău | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 11 |
| 3 | Popești-Leordeni | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Slatina | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Politehnica Timișoara | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 17 |
| 6 | Cetatea Suceava | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Chindia Târgoviște | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 9 |
| 8 | CSM Reșița | 6 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 15 |
| 9 | Bihor Oradea | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 | Gloria Bistriţa | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 11 | Unirea Slobozia | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 4 |
| 12 | CS Afumați | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | ASA Târgu Mureș | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | CSA Steaua București | 7 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2 |
| 17 | Metalul Buzău | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 18 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 19 | Ştefăneşti | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 |
| 20 | Dinamo Bucarest | 7 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
| 21 | Dumbrăviţa | 7 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 22 | CSM Satu Mare | 7 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
