The model missed the final outcome (Chindia Târgoviște win 0–1).
The model had projected Unirea Slobozia at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Unirea Slobozia Chindia Târgoviște ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unirea Slobozia | 35.2% | 31.5% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Chindia Târgoviște | 35.2% | 42.6% | -7.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Chindia Târgoviște's win probability at 42.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Chindia Târgoviște win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Chindia Târgoviște. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Unirea Slobozia; match finished Chindia Târgoviște
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Unirea Slobozia by 7.4 percentage points (42.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Unirea Slobozia 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Chindia Târgoviște 35.2%
- xG · Unirea Slobozia 1.30 — Chindia Târgoviște 1.30
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Unirea Slobozia 2.77 · Draw 3.43 · Chindia Târgoviște 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Unirea Slobozia 32.7% · Draw 26.4% · Chindia Târgoviște 41.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Unirea Slobozia 2.91 · Draw 3.53 · Chindia Târgoviște 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Unirea Slobozia 31.5% · Draw 25.9% · Chindia Târgoviște 42.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Chindia Târgoviște win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Chindia Târgoviște win · Unirea Slobozia 0–1 Chindia Târgoviște
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0384,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0384,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "-3.8%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.4%",
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"side_label": "Unirea Slobozia",
"sort_key": 1790.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"alert_team": "Unirea Slobozia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.42,
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"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Unirea Slobozia at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Unirea Slobozia as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Unirea Slobozia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia).",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0384,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3436426116838488,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.42,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.42,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"steam_team": "Unirea Slobozia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Unirea Slobozia at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Unirea Slobozia as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Unirea Slobozia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia).",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0384,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3436426116838488,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Unirea Slobozia 1.30 xG vs Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te 1.30 \u2192 Unirea Slobozia 35.2%",
"Market: Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te ~31.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Unirea Slobozia \u2193 -7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Unirea Slobozia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Unirea Slobozia",
"market_prob": 31.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.71,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"market_prob": 42.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.18,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.18,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.42,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.42,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"market_prob_pct": 42.59,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Unirea Slobozia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te\u0027s win probability at 42.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.42,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Unirea Slobozia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Unirea Slobozia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Unirea Slobozia 1.30 xG vs Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te 1.30 \u2192 Unirea Slobozia 35.2%",
"Market: Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te ~31.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Unirea Slobozia \u2193 -7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Unirea Slobozia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.42,
"hero_label": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Unirea Slobozia odds shortened \u2193 -7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Unirea Slobozia, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Unirea Slobozia \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Unirea Slobozia, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"Buying interest on Unirea Slobozia \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Unirea Slobozia has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Unirea Slobozia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.42,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.7,
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Unirea Slobozia",
"market_prob_pct": 31.47,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.71,
"edge_pp": 3.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.42,
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"market_prob_pct": 42.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Unirea Slobozia \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te (31.5%).",
"However, Unirea Slobozia has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.1%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Unirea Slobozia, Market \u2192 Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te, Recent sharp money \u2192 Unirea Slobozia.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"closing_odds": 2.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.51,
"entry_odds": 2.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Unirea Slobozia (7.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.94",
"2.77"
],
"display": "3.15 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 15m",
"pick_team": "Unirea Slobozia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
2.91,
2.77,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,10.4 37.3,18.0 56.0,12.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on Unirea Slobozia",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Unirea Slobozia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Unirea Slobozia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Unirea Slobozia",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Unirea Slobozia",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chindia-targoviste",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"away_team_id": 2586,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2586.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"away_team_public_id": "0IzUrPcwYA6ooR",
"away_team_slug": "chindia-targoviste",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1602496,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "Unirea Slobozia",
"home_team_id": 6916,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6916.webp",
"home_team_name": "Unirea Slobozia",
"home_team_public_id": "2Hn5mj5Og6zbvo",
"home_team_slug": "unirea-slobozia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "unirea-slobozia",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga II",
"league_id": 284,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/284.webp",
"league_name": "Liga II",
"league_public_id": "1bA5sDTgN3noN7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 08:00:00",
"public_id": "137RFxpwZmCCaP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Slobozia",
"venue_name": "May 1 Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.4259,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4259,
"draw": 0.2594,
"home": 0.3147
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3963
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2833,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4259,
"draw": 0.2594,
"home": 0.3147
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2699
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.425,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4259,
"draw": 0.2594,
"home": 0.3147
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3304
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.1133,
"ev": -0.2437,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2154,
"alpha_yes": 0.237,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0242,
"edge_yes": -0.0242,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0695,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0934,
"implied_no": 0.4308,
"implied_yes": 0.5692,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4328,
"p_final_yes": 0.5666,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.232,
"alpha_under": 0.2109,
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.755,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.93,
"edge_over": -0.0418,
"edge_under": 0.0418,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1228,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0978,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"implied_over": 0.5238,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5237,
"implied_under": 0.4762,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4763,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.755,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.5237,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5141
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4851
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5141,
"p_final_under": 0.4851,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Unirea Slobozia at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Unirea Slobozia as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Unirea Slobozia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Unirea Slobozia).",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0384,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3436426116838488,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Unirea Slobozia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.4763,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.755,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.5237,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5141
},
"p_final": 0.4851,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4851
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0418,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1602496,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chindia T\u00e2rgovi\u0219te",
"home": "Unirea Slobozia"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0384,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3436426116838488,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1602496,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T07:56:10.733055+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga II — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slatina | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timișoara | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | CSM Reșița | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Bacău | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Chindia Târgoviște | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Concordia Chiajna | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Metalul Buzău | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | CS Afumați | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Metaloglobus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | ASA Târgu Mureș | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 14 | CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Bihor Oradea | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Ştefăneşti | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | CSA Steaua București | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 19 | Unirea Slobozia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 21 | Dumbrăviţa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 22 | Dinamo Bucarest | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bacău | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Popești-Leordeni | 8 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Politehnica Timișoara | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 20 |
| 4 | Slatina | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 22 |
| 5 | Chindia Târgoviște | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 6 | Concordia Chiajna | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 7 | Cetatea Suceava | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | CSM Reșița | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 18 |
| 9 | Bihor Oradea | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Gloria Bistriţa | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | CS Afumați | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | ASA Târgu Mureș | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Unirea Slobozia | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea | 8 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Metalul Buzău | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 14 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua București | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Dinamo Bucarest | 8 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 3 |
| 19 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Ştefăneşti | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
| 21 | Dumbrăviţa | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 3 |
| 22 | CSM Satu Mare | 8 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
