Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Woking Woking ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Woking win · Woking 5–1 Altrincham
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "798204f05b2aaff9ecde2fbc580ac6a83709836a1261381ab4dc859ba3d6c199",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Woking or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Woking"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Woking",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0312,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4158,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.29
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.29,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Woking Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.41,
"market_odds": 2.29,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -5.2,
"value_pct": -11.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Woking or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Woking or Altrincham",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Altrincham",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Woking or Altrincham",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Woking"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.6,
"implied_prob": 28.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Altrincham",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.22,
"draw": 27.2,
"home": 41.58
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:07:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:43:51",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Woking",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.58,
"gap_pp": -3.12,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.2,
"gap_pp": 2.38,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.22,
"gap_pp": 0.73,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.47,
"gap_pp": -4.27,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.53,
"gap_pp": 4.27,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.58,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.2,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.22,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.47,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.53,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.6,
"ev": -0.1125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.1,
"market_prob": 0.1408,
"market_prob_pct": 14.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0088,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4785,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0889,
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5118
},
"p_final": 0.4873,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0049,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4785,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4873
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0987,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.9,
"text": "-9.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0464,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.6,
"text": "+4.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0464,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10041.76,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0051,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4324,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4375
},
"p_final": 0.4375,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0333,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0725,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2387,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.562
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0752,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0032,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5202.56,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0785,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.8,
"text": "-7.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0237,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1193,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Woking",
"sort_key": 1794.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Woking",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.09,
"hero_label": "Woking",
"market_prob_pct": 41.6,
"market_team": "Woking",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Woking",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Woking at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Woking as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Woking",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0785,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1193,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.09,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.09,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Woking",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Woking at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Woking as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Woking",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0785,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1193,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Woking 1.37 xG vs Altrincham 1.23 \u2192 Woking 38.5%",
"Market: Woking ~41.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Woking odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Woking, but the market has moved away from Woking.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.09,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Woking",
"market_prob": 41.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.72,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Altrincham",
"market_prob": 31.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.13,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.13,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Woking",
"market_prob_pct": 41.58,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Woking"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.09,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Woking",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Woking 1.37 xG vs Altrincham 1.23 \u2192 Woking 38.5%",
"Market: Woking ~41.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Woking odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Woking, but the market has moved away from Woking.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.09,
"hero_label": "Woking",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Woking odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Woking.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Woking."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Woking (\u2191 +10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Woking."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.09,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Woking",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.09,
"edge_pp": -3.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Woking",
"market_prob_pct": 41.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.37,
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.72,
"edge_pp": 0.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Altrincham",
"market_prob_pct": 31.22,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Woking.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Woking (41.6%).",
"Woking odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Woking, Market \u2192 Woking, while Woking odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 151h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Woking (10.0%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.29",
"2.15",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.29 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 151h 56m",
"pick_team": "Woking",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.29"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.29,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Woking",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Woking",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Woking while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Woking",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Woking",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Woking",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "altrincham",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Altrincham",
"away_team_id": 4700,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4700.webp",
"away_team_name": "Altrincham",
"away_team_public_id": "4XWvmpcqNqZdqc",
"away_team_slug": "altrincham",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1585218,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Woking",
"home_team_id": 1836,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1836.webp",
"home_team_name": "Woking",
"home_team_public_id": "56msIPq1EjsiVE",
"home_team_slug": "woking",
"ht.home_team_slug": "woking",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League",
"league_id": 43,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/43.webp",
"league_name": "National League",
"league_public_id": "0QUTIt5OMsEkqf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0yNYsScu96IWXb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Woking",
"venue_name": "Kingfield Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2967,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.3122,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3122,
"draw": 0.272,
"home": 0.4158
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3144
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2893,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.272,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3122,
"draw": 0.272,
"home": 0.4158
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2789
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.429,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3122,
"draw": 0.272,
"home": 0.4158
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4024
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0255,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": 0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.0521,
"ev": -0.1192,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.217,
"alpha_yes": 0.2387,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0213,
"edge_yes": -0.0213,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0725,
"ev_yes": -0.0752,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0924,
"implied_no": 0.4347,
"implied_yes": 0.5653,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4375
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2387,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.562
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4375,
"p_final_yes": 0.562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2445,
"alpha_under": 0.2223,
"best_over_odd": 1.87,
"best_under_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": -0.0378,
"edge_under": 0.0378,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0987,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0889,
"ev_under": 0.0464,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"implied_over": 0.5198,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5215,
"implied_under": 0.4802,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4785,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0889,
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5118
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4785,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4873
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5118,
"p_final_under": 0.4873,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0464,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Woking at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Woking as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Woking",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Woking, but the model still strongly favours Woking.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0785,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1193,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0464,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4802,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Woking"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0051,
"market_prob": 0.4324,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4375
},
"p_final": 0.4375,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0725,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2387,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.562
}
},
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4347,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.4785,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0889,
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5118
},
"p_final": 0.4873,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4785,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4873
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0378,
"ev": 0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.4802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585218,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0464,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Altrincham",
"home": "Woking"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0785,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4158,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4366812227074236,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1193,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585218,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:07:49.961252+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Woking & Altrincham!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
National League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Southend United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | AFC Hornchurch | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Sutton United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | AFC Fylde | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Aldershot Town | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eastleigh | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Hartlepool United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Altrincham | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Forest Green Rovers | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Carlisle United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 | Boston United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Worthing | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Halifax Town | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Barrow | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Tamworth FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 22 | Gateshead | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 23 | Woking | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 6 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 6 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 4 | Carlisle United | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Southend United | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Tamworth FC | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Worthing | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Kidderminster Harriers | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 6 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Halifax Town | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 13 | Boston United | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Barrow | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Scunthorpe United | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Aldershot Town | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 17 | Sutton United | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 18 | Altrincham | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 19 | Forest Green Rovers | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 6 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 21 | Solihull Moors | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 1 |
| 22 | Hartlepool United | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 23 | Gateshead | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 24 | Woking | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
