AI correctly predicted the Boreham Wood win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Boreham Wood Boreham Wood ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 40.4% | 54.2% | -13.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.9% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Harrogate Town | 30.1% | 23.9% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Boreham Wood's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Boreham Wood win 4–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Boreham Wood than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Boreham Wood higher (54.2% vs model 40.4%, 13.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Boreham Wood win 4–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Boreham Wood 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Harrogate Town 30.1%
- xG · Boreham Wood 1.41 — Harrogate Town 1.19
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Boreham Wood 1.75 · Draw 4.33 · Harrogate Town 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Boreham Wood 54.2% · Draw 21.9% · Harrogate Town 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Boreham Wood 1.75 · Draw 4.33 · Harrogate Town 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Boreham Wood 54.2% · Draw 21.9% · Harrogate Town 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Boreham Wood win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
31/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Boreham Wood win · Boreham Wood 4–1 Harrogate Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.1659,
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"alert_team": "Harrogate Town",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.78,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boreham Wood at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boreham Wood as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boreham Wood",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1659,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.78,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.78,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"steam_team": "Harrogate Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boreham Wood at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boreham Wood as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boreham Wood",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1659,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Boreham Wood 1.41 xG vs Harrogate Town 1.19 \u2192 Boreham Wood 40.4%",
"Market: Boreham Wood ~54.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Harrogate Town \u2193 -8.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Boreham Wood, but sharp money moved toward Harrogate Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.78,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Boreham Wood",
"market_prob": 54.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.53,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.25,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Harrogate Town",
"market_prob": 23.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.33,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.33,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.84,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.84,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Boreham Wood",
"market_prob_pct": 54.2,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Harrogate Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Boreham Wood\u0027s win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.78,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Boreham Wood",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.8,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Boreham Wood 1.41 xG vs Harrogate Town 1.19 \u2192 Boreham Wood 40.4%",
"Market: Boreham Wood ~54.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Harrogate Town \u2193 -8.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Boreham Wood, but sharp money moved toward Harrogate Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.78,
"hero_label": "Boreham Wood",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Harrogate Town odds shortened \u2193 -8.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Harrogate Town, with odds shortening by 8.9%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Boreham Wood than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Harrogate Town \u2014 odds shortened by 8.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Boreham Wood than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Harrogate Town, with odds shortening by 8.9%.",
"Buying interest on Harrogate Town \u2014 odds shortened by 8.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Boreham Wood more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Harrogate Town has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 8.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Harrogate Town."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.78,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Boreham Wood",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Boreham Wood higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.78,
"edge_pp": -13.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Boreham Wood",
"market_prob_pct": 54.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.53,
"edge_pp": 7.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.25,
"edge_pp": 6.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Harrogate Town",
"market_prob_pct": 23.89,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Harrogate Town \u2014 odds shortened by 8.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Boreham Wood (54.2%).",
"However, Harrogate Town has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -8.9%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Boreham Wood, Market \u2192 Boreham Wood, Recent sharp money \u2192 Harrogate Town.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"closing_odds": 1.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.14,
"entry_odds": 1.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 106h 13m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Harrogate Town (8.9%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.24",
"3.97"
],
"display": "4.90 \u2192 3.79 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 106h 13m",
"pick_team": "Harrogate Town",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
3.97,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,13.6",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Harrogate Town \u2193 -8.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Harrogate Town",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Harrogate Town \u2193 -8.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Harrogate Town while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Harrogate Town",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Harrogate Town",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Harrogate Town",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "harrogate-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Harrogate Town",
"away_team_id": 1842,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1842.webp",
"away_team_name": "Harrogate Town",
"away_team_public_id": "5OdvIOp2BTH2qF",
"away_team_slug": "harrogate-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1585238,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Boreham Wood",
"home_team_id": 1830,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1830.webp",
"home_team_name": "Boreham Wood",
"home_team_public_id": "1WIBouCudFNTso",
"home_team_slug": "boreham-wood",
"ht.home_team_slug": "boreham-wood",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League",
"league_id": 43,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/43.webp",
"league_name": "National League",
"league_public_id": "0QUTIt5OMsEkqf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5rGYSm3HchQhSV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Borehamwood",
"venue_name": "Meadow Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.272,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": 0.0157,
"implied_prob": 0.2389,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2389,
"draw": 0.2191,
"home": 0.542
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.2558
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1775,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": 0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.2191,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2389,
"draw": 0.2191,
"home": 0.542
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2324
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4765,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0654,
"ev": -0.1659,
"implied_prob": 0.542,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2389,
"draw": 0.2191,
"home": 0.542
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4766
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.97,
"edge": 0.0493,
"ev": 0.1956,
"implied_prob": 0.2519,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0631,
"ev": 0.2733,
"implied_prob": 0.2309,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.1666,
"ev": -0.2916,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1559,
"alpha_yes": 0.2143,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0884,
"edge_yes": -0.0884,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1679,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0435,
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1062,
"implied_no": 0.3696,
"implied_yes": 0.6304,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1559,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.3687,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.6313,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6122
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3826,
"p_final_yes": 0.6122,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1911,
"alpha_under": 0.139,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.455,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.52,
"edge_over": -0.1533,
"edge_under": 0.1533,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1198,
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0244,
"implied_over": 0.6353,
"implied_over_mf": 0.634,
"implied_under": 0.3647,
"implied_under_mf": 0.366,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1911,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.634,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6049
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0244,
"implied_prob": 0.366,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3872
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6049,
"p_final_under": 0.3872,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boreham Wood at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boreham Wood as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boreham Wood",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Harrogate Town, but the model still strongly favours Boreham Wood.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1659,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0654,
"ev": -0.1659,
"implied_prob": 0.542,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Boreham Wood"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1559,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.3687,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1559,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.3687,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"p_final": 0.3826,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0435,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.6313,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6122
}
},
"edge": 0.0884,
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.3696,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0211,
"market_prob": 0.366,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1911,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.634,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6049
},
"p_final": 0.3872,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0244,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0244,
"implied_prob": 0.366,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3872
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1533,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3647,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585238,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.3696,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.3696,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Harrogate Town",
"home": "Boreham Wood"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.12575,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3647,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1659,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.542,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585238,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:06:59.248473+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle United | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Worthing | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Carlisle United | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 11 | Boston United | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 9 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Barrow | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 15 |
| 20 | Sutton United | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | Woking | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 |
| 23 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
