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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Emmen Emmen ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Emmen win · Emmen 1–0 Roda
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.64,
"away_win_prob": 0.2646,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.265,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.735,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.218,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.78,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.59,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.93,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.5174,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.753,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.247
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Roda",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Emmen",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Roda"
},
"away_xg": 1.64,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Emmen",
"confidence": 51.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Emmen",
"edge": 0.1308,
"edge_gap": 0.2534,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3871,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.4,
"draw": 21.8,
"home": 51.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Emmen"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.46
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.46,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Emmen Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.58,
"market_odds": 2.46,
"model_odds": 1.93,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 11.2,
"value_pct": 27.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 80.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 90.0,
"no_prob": 26.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 73.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.64,
"home_expected": 2.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.9
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Emmen or Draw",
"prob": 73.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Emmen or Roda",
"prob": 78.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Roda",
"prob": 48.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Emmen or Roda",
"pick_prob": 78.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.5,
"draw_pct": 21.8,
"home_pct": 51.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Emmen"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.94,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 75.3,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 75.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.94,
"under_prob": 24.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 27.5,
"implied_prob": 40.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Emmen Win",
"model_prob": 51.8,
"odds": 2.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Roda",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.62,
"draw": 24.67,
"home": 38.71
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-07 18:01:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-07 17:33:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Emmen",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.71,
"gap_pp": 13.08,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 51.78
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.67,
"gap_pp": -2.89,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.62,
"gap_pp": -10.18,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.44
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.54,
"gap_pp": 13.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 75.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"gap_pp": -13.76,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 24.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.46,
"early": 2.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.71,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.86,
"early": 3.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.67,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.55,
"early": 1.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.54,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.46,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.6,
"ev": -0.16,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.084,
"model_prob_pct": 8.4,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0686,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0686,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Emmen",
"sort_key": 10211.74,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 75.3,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 24.7,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 26.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 805.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 8.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"alert_team": "Emmen",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.03,
"hero_label": "Emmen",
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"market_team": "Emmen",
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"model_team": "Emmen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emmen at 51.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emmen as the value side (51.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emmen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emmen \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.4,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 70% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.66"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.66
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.03,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.64,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.3,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.3,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.64 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +70%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"steam_team": "Emmen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emmen at 51.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emmen as the value side (51.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emmen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emmen \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.4,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 70% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.66"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.66
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Emmen 2.30 xG vs Roda 1.64 \u2192 Emmen 51.7%",
"Market: Emmen ~38.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Emmen odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emmen, but the market has moved away from Emmen.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.03,
"fair_prob": 51.74,
"label": "Emmen",
"market_prob": 38.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob": 21.8,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.16,
"fair_prob": 26.46,
"label": "Roda",
"market_prob": 36.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 75.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 24.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 73.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.74,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Emmen",
"market_prob_pct": 38.71,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Emmen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Emmen\u0027s win probability at 51.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 38.7%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Emmen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Emmen 2.30 xG vs Roda 1.64 \u2192 Emmen 51.7%",
"Market: Emmen ~38.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Emmen odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emmen, but the market has moved away from Emmen.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.03,
"hero_label": "Emmen",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Emmen odds lengthened \u2191 +4.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Emmen.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Emmen.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Emmen.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Emmen."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Emmen more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Emmen (\u2191 +4.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/14) supports the current market view on Emmen."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 25.3 pp (at 51.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 25.3,
"max_prob_pct": 51.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Emmen",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.0,
"lead": "The model rates Emmen considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.03,
"edge_pp": 13.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.74,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Emmen",
"market_prob_pct": 38.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.87,
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.16,
"edge_pp": -10.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Roda",
"market_prob_pct": 36.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Emmen.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Emmen (38.7%).",
"Emmen odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.3%, 11/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Emmen, Market \u2192 Emmen, while Emmen odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.65,
"closing_odds": 2.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.65,
"entry_odds": 2.46,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Emmen (4.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.46",
"2.41",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.46 \u2192 2.14 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 48m",
"pick_team": "Emmen",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.46"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.14"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.46,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/14 sportsbooks on Emmen",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Emmen",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Market moved away from Emmen while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Emmen",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Emmen",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Emmen",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Roda",
"away_team_id": 414,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/414.webp",
"away_team_name": "Roda",
"away_team_slug": "roda",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551738,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Emmen",
"home_team_id": 208,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/208.webp",
"home_team_name": "Emmen",
"home_team_slug": "emmen",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-07 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Emmen",
"venue_name": "De Oude Meerdijk"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3813,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0388,
"ev": -0.1487,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3662,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.3871
},
"model_prob": 0.2644,
"p_final": 0.3274
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.287,
"best_odd": 3.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3662,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.3871
},
"model_prob": 0.2177,
"p_final": 0.2384
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3617,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0473,
"ev": 0.0686,
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3662,
"draw": 0.2467,
"home": 0.3871
},
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"p_final": 0.4344
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.1202,
"ev": -0.3125,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.2644
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.86,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1595,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"model_prob": 0.2177
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.1113,
"ev": 0.2739,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.5178
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.94,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0686,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2739,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emmen at 51.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emmen as the value side (51.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emmen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emmen \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551738 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emmen, but the model still strongly favours Emmen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.4,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 70% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.66"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.66
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.735,
"draw_prob": 0.2177,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5178,
"over_prob": 0.753,
"total_xg": 3.94,
"under_prob": 0.247,
"xg_diff": 0.66
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0473,
"ev": 0.0686,
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Emmen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.735,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.753,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1551738,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0686,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2644,
"draw": 0.2177,
"home": 0.5178
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Roda",
"home": "Emmen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028417,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0686,
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Emmen",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0686,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5178,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2738,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551738,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-07T18:01:26.171752+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Eerste Divisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Emmen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | MVV | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 9 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 22 |
| 2 | Jong AZ | 9 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 15 |
| 4 | FC Volendam | 9 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Almere City FC | 9 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 9 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 | Emmen | 9 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 9 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Vitesse | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Jong PSV | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 9 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | MVV | 9 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 8 |
| 18 | FC OSS | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 |
| 20 | Roda | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Volendam | 9 | 9.6 | 5.1 | +4.5 | 12 |
| 2 | Heracles Almelo | 9 | 10.1 | 6.0 | +4.1 | 22 |
| 3 | Emmen | 9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | +3.0 | 16 |
| 4 | NAC Breda | 9 | 9.8 | 6.9 | +2.9 | 14 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | +2.9 | 16 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 9 | 8.5 | 5.7 | +2.8 | 12 |
| 7 | Den Bosch | 9 | 9.6 | 7.0 | +2.6 | 8 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | 8.0 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 14 |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 9 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 10 | Almere City FC | 9 | 7.2 | 6.1 | +1.1 | 19 |
| 11 | Roda | 8 | 8.1 | 7.2 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | +0.2 | 14 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 9 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 9 |
| 14 | De Graafschap | 9 | 5.4 | 7.6 | -2.2 | 8 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 8.4 | 10.8 | -2.4 | 8 |
| 16 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5.7 | 8.9 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 9 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 5.4 | 9.6 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 19 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -4.3 | 11 |
| 20 | Dordrecht | 9 | 5.0 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 8 |
