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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Canada Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 4.54,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.665,
"home_win_prob": 0.5058308402471576,
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"model_name": "wc_elo_poisson",
"over_25_prob": 0.5064,
"prediction_confidence": "medium",
"source": "worldcup-poisson",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Canada",
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"percent_away": "22.0%",
"percent_draw": "27.4%",
"percent_home": "50.6%",
"winner_name": "Canada"
},
"away_xg": 1.035270437792438,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Canada",
"confidence": 50.5,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Canada",
"edge": -0.0251,
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"pick_type": "winner",
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"home": 50.5
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.84
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.84,
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"overround": 2.4,
"prob_edge": -3.8,
"value_pct": -7.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 0,
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"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 81.1,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"home": 2,
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
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"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Canada or Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"prob": 72.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"prob": 49.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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},
"over_under": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"market": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina Win",
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
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},
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{
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"text": "+20.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1849,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-18.5%"
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"featured": true,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1915,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -19.1,
"text": "-19.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1406,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.1,
"text": "+14.1%"
},
"featured": false,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0505,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"raw_pct": -0.0,
"text": "-0.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5054,
"side_label": "Canada",
"sort_key": 2199.968,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"alert_team": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.45,
"hero_label": "Canada",
"market_prob_pct": 53.0,
"market_team": "Canada",
"model_prob_pct": 50.6,
"model_team": "Canada",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.45,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Canada",
"market_prob": 53.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.06,
"fair_prob": 27.4,
"label": "Draw",
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"fair_prob": 22.0,
"label": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"market_prob": 19.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.91,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.91,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.1,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.1,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.6,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Canada",
"market_prob_pct": 53.05,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina"
},
"fair_source": "wc_poisson",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "high",
"fair_confidence_label": "High",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Canada",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 53.0,
"model_prob_pct": 50.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both identify Canada as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.45,
"hero_label": "Canada",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina odds lengthened \u2191 +3.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 2.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.2 pp (at 50.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.2,
"max_prob_pct": 50.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.6,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Canada",
"market_prob_pct": 53.05,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.34,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"market_prob_pct": 19.6,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Canada (53.0%).",
"Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +3.9%, 8/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Canada, Market \u2192 Canada, Recent sharp money \u2192 Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.35,
"closing_odds": 1.84,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.35,
"entry_odds": 1.84,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 175h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina (3.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "5.00 \u2192 3.97 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 175h 58m",
"pick_team": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.3",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1113,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1113.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1539000,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Canada",
"home_team_id": 5529,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5529.webp",
"home_team_name": "Canada",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
"league_name": "World Cup",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Toronto",
"venue_name": "BMO Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1927,
"best_odd": 4.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0004,
"implied_prob": 0.196,
"model_prob": 0.2204,
"p_final": 0.2007
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2997,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.023,
"implied_prob": 0.2734,
"model_prob": 0.2742,
"p_final": 0.2737
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5774,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.5305,
"model_prob": 0.5054,
"p_final": 0.516
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.12,
"edge_no": -0.081,
"edge_yes": 0.081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1915,
"ev_yes": 0.1406,
"implied_no": 0.543,
"implied_yes": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0891,
"edge_under": -0.0891,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2043,
"ev_under": -0.1849,
"implied_over": 0.4169,
"implied_under": 0.5831,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2043,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2742,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5054,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.629
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.5305,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5054,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Canada"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.081,
"ev": 0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.457,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0891,
"ev": 0.2043,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1539000,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2043,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2204,
"draw": 0.2742,
"home": 0.5054
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.457,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.457,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"home": "Canada"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.103376,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2043,
"implied_prob": 0.4169,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1539000,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:59:05.786220+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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