Oţelul vs Farul Constanta Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.2466,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2572,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.06,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.89,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.02,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.82,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4962,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : O\u0163elul or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : O\u0163elul",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "O\u0163elul"
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    "away_xg": 1.24,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "O\u0163elul",
      "confidence": 49.6,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : O\u0163elul",
        "edge": 0.1045,
        "edge_gap": 0.2384,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3913,
        "model_prob": 0.4958,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 24.7,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 49.6
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        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "O\u0163elul"
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.37
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      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.37,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "O\u0163elul Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.56,
        "market_odds": 2.37,
        "model_odds": 2.02,
        "overround": 7.8,
        "prob_edge": 7.3,
        "value_pct": 17.3,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 71.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 13,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 83.8,
        "no_prob": 39.1,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 60.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 60.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.82,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.6
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.5
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            "away": 0,
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            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.8
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
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            "label": "O\u0163elul or Draw",
            "prob": 75.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "O\u0163elul or Farul Constanta",
            "prob": 74.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Farul Constanta",
            "prob": 50.4
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "O\u0163elul or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 75.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 24.7,
        "draw_pct": 25.7,
        "home_pct": 49.6,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "O\u0163elul"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.06,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 59.0,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.06,
        "under_prob": 41.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 17.6,
        "implied_prob": 42.2,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "O\u0163elul Win",
        "model_prob": 49.6,
        "odds": 2.37
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.82,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.2272,
        "ev_under": -0.2538,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2272,
        "over_prob": 59.0,
        "sort_key": 10354.48,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 41.0,
        "value_side": "over"
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2024,
        "ev_yes": 0.0962,
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        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0962,
        "no_prob": 39.1,
        "sort_key": 10086.58,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 60.9
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
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        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3913,
        "max_ev": 0.0214,
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        "side_label": "O\u0163elul",
        "sort_key": 5217.12,
        "tier": "lean"
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2596,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2596.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Farul Constanta",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
      "country_name": "Romania",
      "fixture_id": 1531540,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 6886,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6886.webp",
      "home_team_name": "O\u0163elul",
      "league_country": "Romania",
      "league_id": 283,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga I",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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            "best_odd": 2.9,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.1575,
            "implied_prob": 0.3198,
            "model_prob": 0.2467,
            "p_final": 0.2905
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2859,
            "best_odd": 3.21,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 2.37,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0214,
            "implied_prob": 0.3913,
            "model_prob": 0.4958,
            "p_final": 0.431
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          "implied_under": 0.5346,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.06,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
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      "confidence": 6.5,
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.609,
          "draw_prob": 0.2575,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4958,
          "over_prob": 0.59,
          "total_xg": 3.06,
          "under_prob": 0.41,
          "xg_diff": 0.58
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "ev": 0.0214,
          "implied_prob": 0.3913,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4958,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "O\u0163elul"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0849,
          "ev": 0.0962,
          "implied_prob": 0.5241,
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          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1246,
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          "implied_prob": 0.4654,
          "model_prob": 0.59,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
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        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2272,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2467,
        "draw": 0.2575,
        "home": 0.4958
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0962,
        "implied_prob": 0.5241,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.609,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
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          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0962,
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          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
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      "teams": {
        "away": "Farul Constanta",
        "home": "O\u0163elul"
      },
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        "model_prob": 0.59,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  "fixture_id": 1531540,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:59:53.858552+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}