Floresta vs Figueirense Statistics & Analysis

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      "percent_away": "45%",
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      "percent_home": "10%",
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        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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        {
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        "best_odds": 3.74,
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    },
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        "away_played": 9,
        "away_score_rate": 73.3,
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        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 9,
        "home_score_rate": 72.2,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
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      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.32,
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            "away": 1,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
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          {
            "key": "1X",
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          },
          {
            "key": "12",
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          {
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    },
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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          "raw_pct": -27.2,
          "text": "-27.2%"
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        "alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        "alert_team": "Figueirense",
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        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "outcome": "home"
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          "label": "Draw",
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 11.59,
          "fair_prob": 36.11,
          "label": "Figueirense",
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          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
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          "edge_pp": 16.16,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -16.16,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
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          "market_prob": 67.96,
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          "outcome": "under"
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          "edge_pp": 14.78,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
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          "outcome": "yes"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -14.78,
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          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 60.28,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
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        "edge_pp": 11.59,
        "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Figueirense",
        "market_prob_pct": 24.52,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Figueirense"
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      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 11.59,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
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          "favourite_label": "Figueirense",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 24.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Figueirense, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Floresta remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
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        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 11.59,
        "hero_label": "Figueirense",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Figueirense odds lengthened \u2191 +16.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
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          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Figueirense.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Figueirense.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Figueirense.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Figueirense."
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          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
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        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Figueirense more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Figueirense (\u2191 +16.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on Figueirense."
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          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
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        "model_validation": {
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            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
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        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -8.61,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
            "is_hero": false,
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            "market_prob_pct": 42.85,
            "side": "home"
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          {
            "edge_pp": -2.98,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.63,
            "side": "draw"
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          {
            "edge_pp": 11.59,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Figueirense",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.52,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Figueirense.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Floresta (24.5%).",
          "However, Figueirense has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +16.7%, 12/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Figueirense, Market \u2192 Floresta, Recent sharp money \u2192 Figueirense.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
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        "closing_odds": 3.74,
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        "clv_pp": 0.0,
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        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
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        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 26.74,
        "entry_odds": 3.74,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
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            "id": "forecast_generated",
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            "id": "market_detected",
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            "status": "active"
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
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            "detail": "PRE1",
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            "id": "clv_evaluated",
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        "books_total": 13,
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        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
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        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 16.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 53m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "12/13 books synchronized on Figueirense (16.7% steam, score 88) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.95 \u2192 2.89 \u2192 3.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 53m",
          "pick_team": "Figueirense",
          "points": [
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              "value": "3.95"
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              "value": "2.89"
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          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Figueirense \u2191 +16.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Figueirense",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Figueirense \u2191 +16.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 88,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
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        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "pick_team": "Figueirense",
        "steam_score": 88,
        "steam_team_name": "Figueirense",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 11.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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      "show": true
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      "away_team_id": 137,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/137.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Figueirense",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1526848,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 7774,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7774.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Floresta",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 75,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/75.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie C de Brasil",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 22:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Horizonte",
      "venue_name": null
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.0
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "draw": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "home": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.5,
          "edge_no": -0.1478,
          "edge_yes": 0.1478,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.272,
          "ev_yes": 0.3625,
          "implied_no": 0.6028,
          "implied_yes": 0.3972,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "edge_over": 0.1616,
          "edge_under": -0.1616,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_under": -0.2644,
          "implied_over": 0.3204,
          "implied_under": 0.6796,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2967,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": 0.0287,
          "ev": 0.0243,
          "implied_prob": 0.2452,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3609,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Figueirense"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "edge": 0.1478,
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          "implied_prob": 0.3972,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1616,
          "ev": 0.446,
          "implied_prob": 0.3204,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1526848,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.446,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2967,
        "home": 0.3424
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      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "implied_prob": 0.3204,
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
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        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
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          "risk_band": "medium",
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      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Figueirense",
        "home": "Floresta"
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      "top_pick": {
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
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        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T22:29:04.825732+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}