The model missed the final outcome (Santa Cruz win 1–0).
The model had projected Floresta at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Floresta Santa Cruz ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 34.7% | 53.2% | -18.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.7% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Floresta | 35.6% | 15.1% | +20.5 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Floresta's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 15.1%, a difference of 20.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Santa Cruz win 1–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Floresta by 20.5 percentage points (15.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Santa Cruz 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Floresta 35.6%
- xG · Santa Cruz 1.29 — Floresta 1.31
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Santa Cruz 1.72 · Draw 2.89 · Floresta 6.06
- Implied 1X2 · Santa Cruz 53.2% · Draw 31.7% · Floresta 15.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Santa Cruz 1.72 · Draw 2.89 · Floresta 6.06
- Implied 1X2 · Santa Cruz 53.2% · Draw 31.7% · Floresta 15.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Santa Cruz win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
53/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
15/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
6.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Santa Cruz win · Santa Cruz 1–0 Floresta
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0874,
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"alert_team": "Floresta",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 20.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 20.53,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
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"summary": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta."
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.7713,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Floresta at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Floresta as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Floresta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +77.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +77.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +77.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+77.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0874,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 6.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1511,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16501650165016502,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1568,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 20.53,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 20.53,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"steam_team": "Floresta",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7713,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Floresta at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Floresta as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Floresta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +77.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +77.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +77.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+77.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0874,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 6.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1511,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16501650165016502,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1568,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santa Cruz 1.29 xG vs Floresta 1.31 \u2192 Floresta 35.6%",
"Market: Santa Cruz ~15.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Floresta odds \u2191 +15.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Floresta, but the market has moved away from Floresta.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -18.52,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Santa Cruz",
"market_prob": 53.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.02,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.53,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Floresta",
"market_prob": 15.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 28.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 71.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 23.11,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 31.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -23.11,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 68.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 20.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Floresta",
"market_prob_pct": 15.11,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Floresta"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Floresta\u0027s win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 15.1%, a difference of 20.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 20.53,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Floresta",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 15.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santa Cruz 1.29 xG vs Floresta 1.31 \u2192 Floresta 35.6%",
"Market: Santa Cruz ~15.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Floresta odds \u2191 +15.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Floresta, but the market has moved away from Floresta.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 20.53,
"hero_label": "Floresta",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Floresta odds lengthened \u2191 +15.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 20.53,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Floresta",
"largest_gap_pp": 20.5,
"lead": "The model rates Floresta considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 20.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -18.52,
"edge_pp": -18.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santa Cruz",
"market_prob_pct": 53.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.02,
"edge_pp": -2.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 20.53,
"edge_pp": 20.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Floresta",
"market_prob_pct": 15.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Santa Cruz (15.1%).",
"However, Floresta has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.5%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Floresta, Market \u2192 Santa Cruz, while Floresta odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 16.5,
"closing_odds": 6.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 16.5,
"entry_odds": 6.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 11m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened Floresta together (15.5% drift, score 68) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.06",
"5.20",
"4.33"
],
"display": "5.97 \u2192 4.30 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 48h 11m",
"pick_team": "Floresta",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.97"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
6.06,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,11.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Floresta odds \u2191 +15.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Floresta",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Floresta odds \u2191 +15.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Market moved away from Floresta while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Floresta",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Floresta",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_team_name": "Floresta",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 20.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "floresta",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Floresta",
"away_team_id": 7774,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7774.webp",
"away_team_name": "Floresta",
"away_team_public_id": "5Yd89TxVSsn02P",
"away_team_slug": "floresta",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1637841,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Santa Cruz",
"home_team_id": 753,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/753.webp",
"home_team_name": "Santa Cruz",
"home_team_public_id": "46RgBKg1RMSfkQ",
"home_team_slug": "santa-cruz",
"ht.home_team_slug": "santa-cruz",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie C de Brasil",
"league_id": 75,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/75.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C de Brasil",
"league_public_id": "4VLz3GkmCZHeBW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 19:00:00",
"public_id": "3KucKD699pFGss",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Recife",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"best_odd": 6.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.0874,
"implied_prob": 0.1511,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1511,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.5322
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.1794
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4365,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.3167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1511,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.5322
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.308
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4336,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0802,
"ev": -0.2225,
"implied_prob": 0.5322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1511,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.5322
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.452
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.06,
"edge": 0.1909,
"ev": 1.157,
"implied_prob": 0.165,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.0492,
"ev": -0.1423,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.2341,
"ev": -0.4027,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1616,
"alpha_yes": 0.1176,
"best_no_odd": 1.4,
"best_yes_odd": 3.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2311,
"edge_yes": 0.2311,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.363,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1338,
"ev_yes": 0.7713,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0045,
"implied_no": 0.6861,
"implied_yes": 0.3139,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1616,
"best_odd": 1.335,
"edge": -0.0374,
"ev": -0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.6863,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6489
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1176,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0272,
"ev": -0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.3137,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3409
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.6489,
"p_final_yes": 0.3409,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.08,
"alpha_under": 0.172,
"best_over_odd": 3.6,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 3.29,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.27,
"edge_over": 0.2019,
"edge_under": -0.2019,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.7352,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0301,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1281,
"implied_over": 0.2801,
"implied_over_mf": 0.2785,
"implied_under": 0.7199,
"implied_under_mf": 0.7215,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.2785,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.2948
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.172,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.7215,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6865
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.2948,
"p_final_under": 0.6865,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7713,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.157,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7713,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7713,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Floresta at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Floresta as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Floresta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +77.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +77.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +77.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+77.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Floresta, but the model still strongly favours Floresta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0874,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 6.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1511,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16501650165016502,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1568,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 6.06,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.0874,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1511,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Floresta"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1176,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0272,
"market_prob": 0.3137,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1616,
"best_odd": 1.335,
"edge": -0.0374,
"ev": -0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.6863,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.6489
},
"p_final": 0.3409,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0045,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1176,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0272,
"ev": -0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.3137,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.3409
}
},
"edge": 0.2311,
"ev": 0.7713,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3139,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.29,
"edge": 0.0163,
"market_prob": 0.2785,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.2785,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.2948
},
"p_final": 0.2948,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0301,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.172,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.7215,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6865
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2019,
"ev": 0.7352,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1637841,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7713,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7352,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7352,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Floresta",
"home": "Santa Cruz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.420359,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7713,
"implied_prob": 0.3139,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0874,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 6.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1511,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16501650165016502,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1568,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1637841,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T19:00:01.078186+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie C de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo-PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 2 | Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | Ferroviária | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Maringá | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Floresta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 6 | Inter de Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Paysandu | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 9 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 10 | Guarani | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 11 | Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 12 | Maranhão | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 13 | Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 14 | Caxias | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 25 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 17 | Barra | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 |
| 18 | Anápolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| 19 | Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guarani | 19 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 28 |
| 2 | Maringá | 19 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 30 |
| 3 | Botafogo-PB | 19 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 4 | Brusque | 19 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 29 |
| 6 | Paysandu | 19 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 29 |
| 7 | Ferroviária | 19 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 30 |
| 8 | Floresta | 19 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 30 |
| 9 | Inter de Limeira | 19 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 30 |
| 10 | Barra | 19 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Amazonas | 19 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 29 |
| 13 | Maranhão | 19 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 27 |
| 14 | Figueirense | 19 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 28 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 22 |
| 16 | Caxias | 19 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 25 |
| 17 | Anápolis | 19 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 19 |
| 18 | Itabaiana | 19 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 17 |
| 19 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 21 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 13 |
