Växjö Norra vs IFK Trelleborg Statistics & Analysis

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      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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      "fair_odds_away": 3.0,
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      "fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or IFK Trelleborg and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "IFK Trelleborg"
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        "market_prob": 0.4103,
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        "pick_type": "no_strong",
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          "away": 33.3,
          "draw": 29.6,
          "home": 37.1
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        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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        "selection_name": null
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        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 2.19
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        "market_fair_odds": 2.44,
        "market_odds": 2.19,
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        "overround": 11.3,
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        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
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        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 71.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 73.8,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
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            "away": 2,
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra or Draw",
            "prob": 66.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra or IFK Trelleborg",
            "prob": 70.4
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            "key": "X2",
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        "pick_key": "12",
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        "lean_label": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
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        "label": "Draw",
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        "odds": 3.66
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    },
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          "closing_implied_pct": 24.55,
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          "closing": 1.39,
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          "closing": 2.59,
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    ],
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        "alert_breadth": "3/8",
        "alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +4.7%",
        "alert_team": "IFK Trelleborg",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 5.1,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 5.08,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 41.0,
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        "model_prob_pct": 37.1,
        "model_team": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 24,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.97,
          "fair_prob": 37.06,
          "label": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra",
          "market_prob": 41.03,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.08,
          "fair_prob": 29.63,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 24.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.11,
          "fair_prob": 33.31,
          "label": "IFK Trelleborg",
          "market_prob": 34.42,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.81,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 65.01,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 16.81,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 34.99,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -11.83,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 66.33,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.83,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 33.67,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 5.08,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 24.55,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "IFK Trelleborg"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.08,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 41.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "Both lean V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra, but the market prices them higher (41.0% vs model 37.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 5.08,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "IFK Trelleborg odds lengthened \u2191 +4.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, IFK Trelleborg has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
            "However, IFK Trelleborg has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
            "At the same time, IFK Trelleborg has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 5.08,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.97,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra",
            "market_prob_pct": 41.03,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 5.08,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.55,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.11,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "IFK Trelleborg",
            "market_prob_pct": 34.42,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra (41.0%).",
          "IFK Trelleborg has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +4.7%, 3/8).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra, Market \u2192 V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra, Recent sharp money \u2192 IFK Trelleborg.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 27.32,
        "closing_odds": 3.66,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 27.32,
        "entry_odds": 3.66,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 3,
        "books_total": 8,
        "breadth_display": "3/8",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.66,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 4.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on IFK Trelleborg (swing 2.90 \u2192 2.54 \u2192 2.66) \u2014 net 4.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.90 \u2192 2.54 \u2192 2.66",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
          "pick_team": "IFK Trelleborg",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.90"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.54"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.66"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,7.5 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.54,
        "page_alert_line": "",
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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          "side_label": "V\u00e4xj\u00f6 Norra"
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          "value_side": "under"
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        "clear_edge": true,
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}