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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 IF Karlstad Stocksund ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Stocksund win · Stocksund 2–1 IF Karlstad
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.4042,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.32,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.3014,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or IF Karlstad and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "IF Karlstad"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "IF Karlstad",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1462,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.551,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.5,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 30.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.66
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.81,
"market_odds": 1.66,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -19.8,
"value_pct": -32.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 69.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 1.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Stocksund or Draw",
"prob": 59.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Stocksund or IF Karlstad",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or IF Karlstad",
"prob": 69.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Stocksund or IF Karlstad",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 30.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "IF Karlstad"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.3,
"implied_prob": 24.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Stocksund Win",
"model_prob": 30.1,
"odds": 4.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "IF Karlstad",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 55.1,
"draw": 22.2,
"home": 22.7
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:56:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:32:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Stocksund",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.7,
"gap_pp": 7.42,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.2,
"gap_pp": 7.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.1,
"gap_pp": -14.62,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.77,
"gap_pp": -15.57,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.23,
"gap_pp": 15.57,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.03,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.12,
"early": 4.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.2,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.46,
"early": 1.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.77,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.57,
"early": 2.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.23,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.545,
"edge": 0.0218,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3589,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6411,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6111
},
"p_final": 0.3807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3183,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.545,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.3589,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3807
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2963,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.6,
"text": "-29.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3572,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10471.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1565,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0136,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.371,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1565,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.371,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"p_final": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1336,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.048,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.629,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6103
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.145,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.5,
"text": "+14.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.145,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10130.5,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0322,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.328,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "IF Karlstad",
"sort_key": 1791.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.68,
"hero_label": "IF Karlstad",
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"market_team": "IF Karlstad",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "IF Karlstad",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IF Karlstad at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IF Karlstad as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IF Karlstad",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.328,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.68,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Stocksund",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IF Karlstad at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IF Karlstad as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IF Karlstad",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.328,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stocksund 1.19 xG vs IF Karlstad 1.41 \u2192 IF Karlstad 40.4%",
"Market: IF Karlstad ~55.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Stocksund +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean IF Karlstad with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.44,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Stocksund",
"market_prob": 22.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.24,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.68,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "IF Karlstad",
"market_prob": 55.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.94,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.94,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.62,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.62,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "IF Karlstad",
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Stocksund"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates IF Karlstad\u0027s win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "IF Karlstad",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.7,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "IF Karlstad \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stocksund 1.19 xG vs IF Karlstad 1.41 \u2192 IF Karlstad 40.4%",
"Market: IF Karlstad ~55.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Stocksund +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean IF Karlstad with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.68,
"hero_label": "IF Karlstad",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about IF Karlstad than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about IF Karlstad than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about IF Karlstad than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors IF Karlstad more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on IF Karlstad (pricing gap 14.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "IF Karlstad",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices IF Karlstad higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.44,
"edge_pp": 7.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Stocksund",
"market_prob_pct": 22.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.24,
"edge_pp": 7.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.68,
"edge_pp": -14.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "IF Karlstad",
"market_prob_pct": 55.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about IF Karlstad than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers IF Karlstad (55.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 IF Karlstad, Market \u2192 IF Karlstad, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.24,
"closing_odds": 1.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.24,
"entry_odds": 1.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/5",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Stocksund",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_team_name": "Stocksund",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "if-karlstad",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "IF Karlstad",
"away_team_id": 11659,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11659.webp",
"away_team_name": "IF Karlstad",
"away_team_public_id": "2ebuYQeOvlxvRE",
"away_team_slug": "if-karlstad",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505257,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Stocksund",
"home_team_id": 6700,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6700.webp",
"home_team_name": "Stocksund",
"home_team_public_id": "0bA5N97CpsPmsa",
"home_team_slug": "stocksund",
"ht.home_team_slug": "stocksund",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_public_id": "0nme5hw4ptdA6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5MgnXJyKiizTFA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Danderyd IP"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4684,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0685,
"ev": -0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.551,
"draw": 0.222,
"home": 0.227
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4825
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1784,
"best_odd": 4.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0324,
"implied_prob": 0.222,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.551,
"draw": 0.222,
"home": 0.227
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2349
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1777,
"best_odd": 4.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.227,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.551,
"draw": 0.222,
"home": 0.227
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.2402
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.1976,
"ev": -0.3281,
"implied_prob": 0.6024,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.12,
"edge": 0.0513,
"ev": 0.2115,
"implied_prob": 0.2427,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.03,
"edge": 0.053,
"ev": 0.2136,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1565,
"alpha_yes": 0.2152,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0862,
"edge_yes": -0.0862,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.145,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.048,
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.109,
"implied_no": 0.3718,
"implied_yes": 0.6282,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1565,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.371,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.629,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6103
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3846,
"p_final_yes": 0.6103,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1884,
"alpha_under": 0.1371,
"best_over_odd": 1.46,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.425,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.545,
"edge_over": -0.1594,
"edge_under": 0.1594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2963,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1292,
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.031,
"implied_over": 0.6414,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6411,
"implied_under": 0.3586,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3589,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6411,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6111
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.545,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.3589,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3807
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6111,
"p_final_under": 0.3807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IF Karlstad at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IF Karlstad as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IF Karlstad",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (IF Karlstad).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.328,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0685,
"ev": -0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "IF Karlstad"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1565,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0136,
"market_prob": 0.371,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1565,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.371,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"p_final": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.048,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2152,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.629,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6103
}
},
"edge": 0.0862,
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.545,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.3589,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6411,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6111
},
"p_final": 0.3807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.545,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.3589,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3807
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1594,
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3586,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505257,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "IF Karlstad",
"home": "Stocksund"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3586,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.551,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6024096385542169,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.328,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505257,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:56:12.333508+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ettan - Norra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 5 | FBK Karlstad | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 42 |
| 6 | IF Karlstad | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | Enköping | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 9 | Gefle IF | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 10 | Umeå FC | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 12 | Vasalund | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 27 |
| 13 | Sollentuna | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 24 |
| 14 | Piteå | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 57 | 20 | +37 | 54 |
| 2 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 45 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 45 | 32 | +13 | 46 |
| 4 | Stocksund | 24 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 14 |
| 5 | Assyriska FF | 24 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 32 |
| 6 | Arlanda | 24 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 24 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 42 |
| 8 | Enköping | 24 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | IF Karlstad | 24 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 40 |
| 10 | Vasalund | 24 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 11 | Umeå FC | 24 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Järfälla | 24 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 18 |
| 13 | Karlberg | 24 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 29 |
| 14 | Gefle IF | 24 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 15 | Piteå | 24 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 21 |
| 16 | Sollentuna | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 24 |
