Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Charlotte FC Charlotte FC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Charlotte FC win · CF Montreal 1–2 Charlotte FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "743afd312a8640fe89d147913c716324d87d1d9d240e7d417233ba2178d0c2c5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.52,
"away_win_prob": 0.3846,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.393,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.607,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2752,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.63,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.94,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"home_win_prob": 0.3402,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.563,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.437
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Charlotte FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Charlotte FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.52,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Charlotte FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.033,
"edge_gap": 0.0445,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3516,
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.5,
"draw": 27.5,
"home": 34.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.75
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.75,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Charlotte FC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.84,
"market_odds": 2.75,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 2.1,
"value_pct": 5.8,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 78.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 39.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 60.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 60.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.52,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "CF Montreal or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "CF Montreal or Charlotte FC",
"prob": 72.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Charlotte FC",
"prob": 66.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "CF Montreal or Charlotte FC",
"pick_prob": 72.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.5,
"draw_pct": 27.5,
"home_pct": 34.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Charlotte FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.94,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 56.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 56.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.94,
"under_prob": 43.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.5,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 27.5,
"odds": 3.91
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Charlotte FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.16,
"draw": 24.73,
"home": 40.12
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 23:29:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 22:59:38",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "CF Montreal",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.12,
"gap_pp": -6.11,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.73,
"gap_pp": 2.82,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.16,
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.45
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.62,
"gap_pp": -6.32,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 56.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.38,
"gap_pp": 6.32,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 43.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.41,
"early": 2.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.12,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.91,
"early": 3.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.73,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.75,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.16,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.62,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.38,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.1,
"ev": -0.088,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.114,
"model_prob_pct": 11.4,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0248,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.437,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.55,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.563,
"p_final": 0.5909
},
"p_final": 0.3998,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0925,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0005,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0005,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.3998
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1274,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1362,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.6,
"text": "+13.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1362,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 56.3,
"sort_key": 10272.58,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0152,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.393,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.3564,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3717
},
"p_final": 0.3717,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0336,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5731,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.6436,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6226
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0611,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.1,
"text": "+6.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1077,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0611,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 39.3,
"sort_key": 10054.99,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 60.7
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0056,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.6,
"text": "+0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0056,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.6,
"text": "+0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Charlotte FC",
"sort_key": 5204.48,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.1,
"hero_label": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob_pct": 35.2,
"market_team": "CF Montreal",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Charlotte FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1362,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1362,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Charlotte FC at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Charlotte FC as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Charlotte FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0056,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.38461538461538464,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.1,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1362,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1362,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Charlotte FC at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Charlotte FC as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Charlotte FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0056,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CF Montreal 1.42 xG vs Charlotte FC 1.52 \u2192 Charlotte FC 38.5%",
"Market: CF Montreal ~35.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Charlotte FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.1,
"fair_prob": 34.02,
"label": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob": 40.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.79,
"fair_prob": 27.52,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob": 38.46,
"label": "Charlotte FC",
"market_prob": 35.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.93,
"fair_prob": 56.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob": 43.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.54,
"fair_prob": 60.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob": 39.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.02,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob_pct": 40.12,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates CF Montreal\u0027s win probability at 40.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.0%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Charlotte FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Charlotte FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CF Montreal 1.42 xG vs Charlotte FC 1.52 \u2192 Charlotte FC 38.5%",
"Market: CF Montreal ~35.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Charlotte FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.1,
"hero_label": "CF Montreal",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on CF Montreal. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on CF Montreal. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices CF Montreal above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.4 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.4,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "CF Montreal",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices CF Montreal higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.1,
"edge_pp": -6.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.02,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob_pct": 40.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.79,
"edge_pp": 2.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.52,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.3,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Charlotte FC",
"market_prob_pct": 35.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers CF Montreal (35.2%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.4%, 5/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Charlotte FC, Market \u2192 CF Montreal, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.49,
"closing_odds": 2.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.49,
"entry_odds": 2.41,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 149h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.94 \u2192 3.31 \u2192 3.90) \u2014 net 5.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.91",
"3.81",
"3.70"
],
"display": "3.94 \u2192 3.31 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 149h 58m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.94"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.31"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
3.91,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,0.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "charlotte",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Charlotte FC",
"away_team_id": 18310,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18310.webp",
"away_team_name": "Charlotte FC",
"away_team_public_id": "5aJq7s8ZcG7De2",
"away_team_slug": "charlotte",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490456,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Canada",
"home_team_display_name": "CF Montreal",
"home_team_id": 1614,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1614.webp",
"home_team_name": "CF Montreal",
"home_team_public_id": "0bWor3A02KhaSv",
"home_team_slug": "cf-montreal",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cf-montreal",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 23:30:00",
"public_id": "5J2H9QUHlPJ5uW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Montreal",
"venue_name": "Saputo Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4278,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": 0.0056,
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3516,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4012
},
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"p_final": 0.3657
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2873,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0016,
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3516,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4012
},
"model_prob": 0.2754,
"p_final": 0.2554
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4088,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.025,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.4012,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3516,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.4012
},
"model_prob": 0.3401,
"p_final": 0.3762
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3845
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": 0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2754
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.0749,
"ev": -0.1805,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3401
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4168,
"alpha_yes": 0.5731,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0354,
"edge_yes": -0.0354,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0611,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0336,
"ev_yes": -0.1077,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1034,
"implied_no": 0.3576,
"implied_yes": 0.6424,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.3564,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3717
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5731,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.6436,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6226
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.3717,
"p_final_yes": 0.6226,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.55,
"alpha_under": 0.4,
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.5,
"edge_over": -0.0593,
"edge_under": 0.0593,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1274,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1136,
"ev_under": 0.1362,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0005,
"implied_over": 0.6223,
"implied_over_mf": 0.625,
"implied_under": 0.3777,
"implied_under_mf": 0.375,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.55,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.563,
"p_final": 0.5909
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0005,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.3998
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5909,
"p_final_under": 0.3998,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.94,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1362,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1362,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1362,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1362,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1362,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Charlotte FC at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Charlotte FC as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Charlotte FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Charlotte FC).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0056,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.607,
"draw_prob": 0.2754,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3845,
"over_prob": 0.563,
"total_xg": 2.94,
"under_prob": 0.437,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": 0.0056,
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Charlotte FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0152,
"market_prob": 0.3564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.393,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.3564,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3717
},
"p_final": 0.3717,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0336,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5731,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.6436,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6226
}
},
"edge": 0.0354,
"ev": 0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.3576,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0248,
"market_prob": 0.375,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.437,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.55,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.563,
"p_final": 0.5909
},
"p_final": 0.3998,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0005,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0005,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.3998
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0593,
"ev": 0.1362,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490456,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1362,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3845,
"draw": 0.2754,
"home": 0.3401
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Charlotte FC",
"home": "CF Montreal"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.056543,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1362,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.437,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0056,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3845,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0574,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490456,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T23:29:19.975520+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para CF Montreal & Charlotte FC!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Major League Soccer — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | San Diego | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 29 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 56 | 23 | +33 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 26 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 44 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 31 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 41 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 36 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 44 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 49 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 26 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 31 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 42 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 26 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 26 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 30 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 32 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 29 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 18 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 33 |
