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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Səbail Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "710fc2b99384a5c86584b57e09b6ad143350a2e856cd992fbb738611a5fb6ed7",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : S\u0259bail",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "S\u0259bail"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "S\u0259bail",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1391,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5567,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 76.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 16,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 76.0,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.05,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "S\u0259bail or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "S\u0259bail or \u015eahda\u011f",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or \u015eahda\u011f",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "S\u0259bail or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "S\u0259bail"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.45,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 44.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.7,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.45,
"under_prob": 55.7
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "\u015eahda\u011f",
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "S\u0259bail",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 3.2,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.67,
"gap_pp": -13.91,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.75,
"gap_pp": 1.91,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.57,
"gap_pp": 11.99,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"gap_pp": -12.84,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 44.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.86,
"gap_pp": 12.84,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 55.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.67,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.75,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.75,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.33,
"early": 4.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.57,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 3.2,
"implied_early_pct": 53.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.86,
"implied_delta_pp": -3.2,
"implied_early_pct": 46.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2248,
"ev_under": 0.2533,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2533,
"over_prob": 44.3,
"sort_key": 10377.97,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 55.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.2149,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5567,
"max_ev": -0.024,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "S\u0259bail",
"sort_key": 1794.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0716,
"ev_yes": -0.0636,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0636,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 1784.1,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 5576,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5576.webp",
"away_team_name": "\u015eahda\u011f",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/az.svg",
"country_name": "Azerbaijan",
"fixture_id": 1466978,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 4199,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4199.webp",
"home_team_name": "S\u0259bail",
"league_country": "Azerbaijan",
"league_id": 418,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/418.webp",
"league_name": "Birinci Dasta",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-14 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.164,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.024,
"implied_prob": 0.2057,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.2254
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2914,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2431
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4748,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2149,
"implied_prob": 0.5567,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4907
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": -0.0021,
"edge_yes": 0.0021,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0716,
"ev_yes": -0.0636,
"implied_no": 0.4241,
"implied_yes": 0.5759,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.1194,
"edge_under": 0.1194,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2248,
"ev_under": 0.2533,
"implied_over": 0.5624,
"implied_under": 0.4376,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2533,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.443,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.557,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2149,
"implied_prob": 0.5567,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "S\u0259bail"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.5759,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1194,
"ev": 0.2533,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1466978,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2533,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "\u015eahda\u011f",
"home": "S\u0259bail"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.141088,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2533,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.557,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1466978,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-14T12:59:04.321090+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Birinci Dasta — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 25 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Səbail | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 49 |
| 3 | Mingəçevir | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 45 |
| 4 | Baku Sportinq | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 45 |
| 5 | Şahdağ | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | MOIK | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 7 | Zaqatala | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| 8 | Cəbrayıl | 25 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 24 |
| 9 | Şimal | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 17 |
| 10 | Difai Ağsu | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 25 | 50 | 19 | +31 | 54 |
| 2 | Mingəçevir | 25 | 48 | 25 | +23 | 45 |
| 3 | Səbail | 25 | 45 | 17 | +28 | 49 |
| 4 | Cəbrayıl | 25 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 24 |
| 5 | Baku Sportinq | 25 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 45 |
| 6 | Şahdağ | 25 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | MOIK | 25 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 30 |
| 8 | Difai Ağsu | 25 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 25 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 25 |
| 10 | Şimal | 25 | 20 | 58 | -38 | 17 |