Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs NEOM Statistics & Analysis

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  "content_hash": "78929b419b23111ff015ef675b932f546d2e79d1322cb5fbee6edd14648501e6",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_win_prob": 0.1043,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1815,
      "fair_odds_away": 9.59,
      "fair_odds_draw": 5.51,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.4,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.51,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7143,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.9,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0427,
        "edge_gap": 0.5328,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7569,
        "model_prob": 0.7143,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 10.4,
          "draw": 18.1,
          "home": 71.4
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.24
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
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        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.32,
        "market_odds": 1.24,
        "model_odds": 1.4,
        "overround": 6.5,
        "prob_edge": -9.2,
        "value_pct": -11.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 59.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 14,
        "home_failed_to_score": 1,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 91.9,
        "no_prob": 44.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 55.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 55.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.9,
        "home_expected": 2.51,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 10.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 8.7
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.3
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "label": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Draw",
            "prob": 89.5
          },
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            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC or NEOM",
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 28.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 89.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 10.4,
        "draw_pct": 18.1,
        "home_pct": 71.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.41,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.6,
        "over_prob": 66.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 66.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.41,
        "under_prob": 33.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 18.2,
        "implied_prob": 15.3,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 18.1,
        "odds": 6.53
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "NEOM",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
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      "model_vs_closing": [
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        {
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 9.93,
          "gap_pp": 0.49,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 10.43
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 68.49,
          "gap_pp": -2.29,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 66.2
        },
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          "closing_implied_pct": 31.51,
          "gap_pp": 2.29,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 33.8
        }
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 1.24,
          "early": 1.24,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 75.69,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 6.53,
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        {
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          "implied_closing_pct": 9.93,
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          "implied_early_pct": 9.93,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.38,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 3.0,
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          "implied_early_pct": 31.51,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
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    },
    "home_xg": 2.51,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 66.2,
        "sort_key": 10119.07,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 33.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "ev_yes": -0.001,
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7569,
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        "side_label": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
        "sort_key": 1796.275,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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      {
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        "id": "correct_score",
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
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      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 10513,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10513.webp",
      "away_team_name": "NEOM",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "fixture_id": 1436205,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2932,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2932.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Pro League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 16:05:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 9.45,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0071,
            "ev": -0.0149,
            "implied_prob": 0.1437,
            "model_prob": 0.1815,
            "p_final": 0.1509
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5616,
            "best_odd": 1.24,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.024,
            "ev": -0.0911,
            "implied_prob": 0.7569,
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            "p_final": 0.733
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.8,
          "edge_no": -0.0227,
          "edge_yes": 0.0227,
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          "ev_no": -0.0655,
          "ev_yes": -0.001,
          "implied_no": 0.4677,
          "implied_yes": 0.5323,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 3.35,
          "edge_over": -0.0268,
          "edge_under": 0.0268,
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          "implied_over": 0.6888,
          "implied_under": 0.3112,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.41,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
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        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "draw_prob": 0.1815,
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          "total_xg": 3.41,
          "under_prob": 0.338,
          "xg_diff": 1.61
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        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.3112,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.338,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1323,
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          "model_prob": 0.338,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
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          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
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          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1436205,
      "match_regime": {
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        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "longshot",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
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        "stake_mult": 0.1,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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        "away": 0.1043,
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      },
      "reason_codes": [
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        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "NEOM",
        "home": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1436205,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T16:04:06.617491+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}